Grand National
Saturday 8th April
Grand National
The Grand National is the greatest horse race in the world, but it is also an exceptionally specialist event where only the toughest competitors can rise to the top (although not without a healthy dollop of good fortune along the way.)
Historical trends are particularly pertinent when narrowing down the list of potential winners of this special event, and we’ll look to provide a decent shortlist of potential candidates to consider by studying these trends. Unless you prefer to follow your Nan’s tips that is – she has backed the winner every year since 1947 after all….
Premature Conclusion
Right - get straight to the chase - there is a lot of detail below, but some of you are just here for the tips. Based on a weighted system of trends, we've pulled together a handful of horses you might consider following this year. More on the trends below, but for the fancies we are plumping for:
Blaklion at 14/1 PLACE
Cause of Causes at 16/1 PLACED
One for Arthur 16/1 WINNER
Just A Par 50/1
Good to Know 100/1
All E.W Bets
Stake = 10 units
Return = 31.5 units
Profit = 21.5 units
Stamina Whatever you think about the National, it’s impossible to make a logic argument against stamina being a crucial part of the mix of any winner. Raced over 4m 2f (reduced since 2013 marginally) and with no fewer than 30 significant fences to negotiate, only the fittest will have that extra bit come the final run in.
In the period 1994-2016 an astonishing 21 out of 23 winners had previous winning form over 3 miles or more, but with the vast majority of runners fitting that bill, it’s only so much use for narrowing the field. Instead we should pimp it up a little and look at those who have won over even greater distances.
We found a recent study that really helps us - of 318 runners who took part in the National between 2009 and 2016, you find that 16% of horses who have finished inside the places of a race of at least 3m4f go on to place in the National. Compare that to horses whose longest distance race place is less than 3m2f and that strike rate drops to just 4%! So a horse who has made the frame over the longer distance is four times as likely to place as one who hasn't!
So who meets this criteria this year?
Blaklion* The Young Master* Cause Of Causes* One For Arthur* Bishops Road* Just A Par* Measureofmydreams* Gas Line Boy*
Good to Know*
The following all made good over 3m 2f+
Perfect Candiadate
Wonderful Charm
Roi Des Francs
Definitely Red
Ballynagour
Doctor Harper
Key Races
Being such a specialist race, warming up in the right type of trials is equally important. 18 of the last 23 winners have been placed in one of the following races:- Irish National; Scottish National; Welsh National; Beecher Chase; Hennessy Chase; Cheltenham Gold Cup; Grand National.
Here are the runners who have enjoyed form at these major events:
The Last Samuri More Of That Saphire Du Rheu Vieux Lion Rouge Blaklion Ucello Conti Houblon Des Obeaux One For Arthur Highland Lodge Lord Windermere Saint Are Vicente Raz De Maree Rogue Angel
Thunder and Roses
Class
We'll use a really simple method to rule out a couple of runners here. UK Horse Races are run over one of 7 classes, with Class 1 being the top. The last two decades worth of Grand National winners have all previously won either a Class 1 or Class 2 race in their careers. Based on this, we should put lines through the following
Ucello Conti Rule The World Home Farm
Big Field Form
With 40 contenders setting off, knowing how to deal with a packed field is a key trend worth following. Of the 280 runners to take part since 2009, we split them into three categories - those whose best career win was in a race of 0-10 runners, those who had posted a win in a field of 11-16 runners, and those who had win in a field of over 17. You find that of those who have only managed to win a small field race, none have placed in the Grand National in that 7 year period, while 15% of runners who have won in a big field end up placing inside the top 4 in the bgi race. It's clearly a useful trend to watch.
The following horses should be avoided as a result:
Silviniaco Conti Wonderful Charm Buywise Aachen Le Reve Kruzhlin Perfect Candidate
Aintree Form
Horses with experience at Aintree tend to perform better at the National - they have a notably stronger record than those trying for the first time. Those who tick the box this time are:
The Last Samuri Saphir Du Rheu Blaklion Le Mercurey Regal Encore Ucello Conti Vieux Lion Rouge Highland Lodge Saint Are Wonderful Charm Houblon Des Obeaux Ballynagour Just A Par Doctor Harper
Aintree Finshers
Over the past 7 years, 99 horses have returned to run the National again (some multiple runners). Of those whose best finish has been a failure to finish, only 23% have made it round on their return, which suggests we should massively swerve these, while those who have previously placed have a strong chance of doing so again - roughly 25%.
The Last Samuri - significant weight rise for this return, so ignored.
Saint Are
Ucello Conti
Vieux Lion Rouge
Cause of Causes
Raz De Maree
Just a Par
Wonderful Charm
Lord Windermere
Ballynagour
Gas Line Boy