Bank on Murray
Arguably the best player in the world right now, Andy Murray meets Dominic Thiem for a place int he Barcelona Final on Saturday.
Thiem is a decent clay courter, and it would certainly be his court of choice to face Murray, but Murray is a far bigger force on the red dirt than he used to be, and the stats suggest he should be a decent favourite in this match.
Looking at their clay court stats over the last 52 weeks against Top 50 players, Murray has won 66% of service points, compared to 64% for Thiem, and has also proved the better man at the other end - winning 42% of receiving points, while Thiem has managed 41%.
Those stats might sound tight, but its on margins like these that matches are won, and if the bookies can't split the pair, it's up to us to do it for them.
The reason the prices are so close will be down to the bookies reacting to Murray's three set match with Albert Ramos-Vinalos, and Thiem's easy win against Yuichi Sugita, but there is a world of difference between those opponents, and the Scot can get back in command here.
Murray to beat Thiem at 10/11