Azerbaijan GP - Race Day Update
Our pre-qualifying preview focussed on the chances of Red Bull pair Daniel Ricciardo and Max Verstappen primarily, and while those bets don't look in great shape after a qualifying session that saw Mercedes fire themselves back to the top of the pecking order, our hunch that the long lap length could lead to a high winning margin in qualifying proved correct and we banked a 15/8 winner to partly cover the other bets.
After qualifying it's clear that Mercedes are an improved force from their Friday performance, but with Hamilton a 1/3 favourite now and Valtteri Bottas a very handy wing man on such a tight track, it would be difficult to imagine how else this race might now play out other than reading the likely race outcome from the odds.
Sebastien Vettel looks the first slice of value at 4/5 to finish on the podium (William Hill). The German starts fourth, directly behind his teammate Kimi Raikkonen, and there is a reasonable chance he could jump him at the lights. If he doesn't, we believe he has the pace to pass him at the pitstops to secure a seventh podium finish in eight races. He's been very upbeat about the Ferrari race pace since qualifying.
In the points market, on a track as complex and tight as Baku, it's reasonable to expect at least a little attrition, so it could be worth targetting someone who could pick up the pieces if other stop in front. Carlos Sainz fits the bill at 6/5 (William Hill, Bet Victor) with a starting slot of 12th and a reasonably reliable car. He's already finished in the points in five of the seven races so far this season, so has the pace to take advantage.
Vettel to finish on the Podium at 4/5
Sainz to finish in the Points at 6/5