Wimbledon - Ladies Semi-Finals
Well it's been a reasonably tough week for us on the results, and we needed a retirement from Novak Djokovic to get our stake back on the 3-0 yesterday when it looked like it had already lost. The good news though is there is value in abundance in the Ladies semis as the bookies try to price up a few specials, and may just have come up with the wrong prices.
Starting with Johanna Konta's match against Venus Williams then, and we are surely looking ahead to an epic tussle between two worthy semi-finalists.
Konta has quite frankly been a revelation over the past couple of years, and richly deserves her World Number 7 ranking. She has been forced to ride her luck a little this Championships though of course, and has already seen three of her five matches run the distance, which could have taken a bit of a toll. Prior to coming to SW19, she was a semi-finalist at Eastbourne (electing to allow a walk over at that stage rather than contest it) and a runner-up at Nottingham. She's clearly at home on the grass then.
Williams is herself a master of these courts, with a 91-18 career record on the surface. She's also already accounted for Jelena Ostapenko and Ana Konjuh, and on balace, the bookmakers assessment of this match looks pretty fair - it's going to be hard, its going to be close, and the winner is going to have a great chance on Saturday.
For a bet we'll head the specials markets, where Konta may be getting under-rated in the Aces market with Sky Bet. The Leeds based firm have chalked her up at 2/1 to serve more than Williams, and the stats suggest thats a play.
Looking at their records on Hard and Grass courts in 2017, and only when they have been playing Top 50 opponents, Konta has served an average of 0.48 aces per service game, and conceeded 0.42 per game. Williams on the other hand has served 0.38 per service game, with 0,36 against her. Those stats suggest this could be a really close heat, so to have Williams heavy odds on (8/13) looks an over-reaction.
Konta to serve more Aces than Williams at 2/1 with Sky Bet
In the other semi-final, Magdalena Rybarikova looks a great bet at 21/10 when she faces Garbine Muguruza. The Spaniard has motored into the semi-finals, dropping just a single set (to Angelique Kerber) and has a +27 games difference through the Championship. She's been seeing all the early money, and is into 2/5 now to win this match-up.
The pair have shared their two previous meetings, but it is Rybarikova who has the more grass orientated game, and has an impressive 53-24 record on the surface, which stands out strongly on her career progress charts. She has acheived a +26 game difference so far in the tournament despite dropping an additional set, and will take strength from her win over Karolina Pliskova. With a near perfect run at Surbiton, Ilkley and Eastbourne in preparation for this event, the Russian will be feeling on top of the world right now, and the 21/10 about a win is simply too big.
In the stats markets, Muguruza is generally a far more careless player on her serve. Looking back to our Grass/Hard/2017/Top 50 stats, we see that the Spaniard has served 0.3 double faults per service game, compared to just 0.12 for Rybarikova. Of course, there is always a risk of a tie in the double fault market, but at 5/4, Muguruza looks value to serve the most.
In the Aces market, we've seen Rybarikova putting down around 0.4 per service game (with 0.2 against) compared to Muguruza with 0.32 scored per service game, and the same number against. The 11/10 available about the Russian getting the most also looks a value prospect, and we'll make that our fourth bet!
Rybarikova to beat Muguruza at 21/10 with Bet Victor
Muguruza to serve the most Double Faults at 5/4 with Sky Bet
Rybarikova to serve the most Aces at 11/10 with Sky Bet