Italy Women v Russia Women
The bookmakers have written off Russia before a ball has even been kicked, and that could be a risky strategy given that Italy are no superstars of the Ladies game themselves.
Russia are currently ranked 25th in the FIFA World Rankings, while Italy are 18th, and while differences in rankings can mean a lot more in Womens football than mens (there is a much sharper drop off in quality as you move down the rankings than in the Mens game), seven places difference is probably not enough to justify odds of just 1/3 about the Italians given the neutral venue.
Russia came out of Group 5 to qualify - a group which contained Germany, and if you took their results against the World No.2 side out of the equation, they would have qualified with 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, and a 14-3 goals for/against statistic. While those results only came against Hungary, Croatia and Turkey, they nevertheless seem underrated here.
Italy were themselves runners-up, finishing behind Switzerland (ranked 17th in the world) who had a perfect 8-0-0 record. Italy won their other six matches, and would have had a goal difference of 25-3 without those matches against the Swiss.
Of course the last time these pair met, it was a 3-0 cruise for Italy back in December, but that was one result in Italy, and we're prepared to pay only slight attention to it.
More importantly have been the Italian's results over the past year or so against teams ranked similar to Russia. They lost 6-0 to Switzerland in March (ranked 17th), lost 4-1 to Belgium in Marck (22nd). You have to go back to March 2015 to fins a team ranked higher than Russia that Italy have actually beaten.
Italy are definitely favourites, but not by the margin chalked up, and we reckon backing Russia on the handicap is the best play.
Russia (+1) at 3/1 with Bet365
Russia (+2) at 10/11 with Bet365