Midweek EFL Championship
Millwall v Ipswich
The early league table has thrown up a couple of surprises in the Championship, but listen to any of the shrewder managers in the division and you’ll hear them talking about performances rather than points at this stage of the season, and that’s especially true about one of the biggest surprises so far.
We tipped Ipswich Town to endure a season scraping at the foot of the table, so we are obviously less than impressed to see them flying high in fourth place after back-to-back wins against Birmingham and Barnsley. It could be worth backing them again in the relegation market however, as there are plenty of reasons to believe that luck has played a reasonable part in their early league placing.
The Tractor Boys slipped past Birmingham 1-0 on the opening day, registering just two shots on target, and their trip to Barnsley gave them a 2-1 win – that match saw the Tykes dominate the shot count 25-9, while they also registered 10 on target to Town’s two – both of which ended in the back of the net. So four shots on target have delivered three goals – they won’t sustain that sort of prolificacy.
Millwall by contrast lost 1-0 to Forest on the opening day, but should have won the game by all accounts, so defeat sounds particularly unlucky, while they were also the better side in a 1-1 draw with Bolton on Saturday – another opportunity missed by the Lions. The even money on Millwall looks good value here.
Cardiff v Sheffield United
Like Ipswich, Cardiff have taken maximum points from their opening fixtures, but unlike the Suffolk side, those results seem to reflect the balance on play in their matches more reasonably. They were dominant against Burton on the opening day, and a 1-0 win probably did not fully reflect their superiority and they then followed that up with a fine 3-0 win over Aston Villa. With Neil Warnock in the hot-seat, Cardiff are unlikely to rest on their laurels and he’s a proven campaigner at this level facing a side he would dearly love to beat – you can be sure he’ll have his side fired up for this one.
The Blades didn’t impress anyone at home to Brentford in the curtain raiser, and despite an improved show against Middlesbrough they could find this trip an awkward one so early in the season. At a shade of odds-on, Cardiff are the clear call in our view.
Barnsley v Nottingham Forest
We’ve already mentioned the injustice of Barnsley losing at Oakwell to Ipswich on Saturday – 25-9 was the shot count, so to go down 2-1 was surely harsh, but perhaps more pertinent to this fixture is what we should expect of Forest this season.
Britt Assombalonga has flown for Boro and he will be a big loss. Forest hosted Millwall on the opening day, and escaped with a fortunate 1-0 victory. Again, they were outfought in the match, and scored with one of their two efforts on target, while Millwall through the kitchen sink at them in an attempt to get level, and it was a similar story at Brentford where Forest won 4-3 despite having just 6 shots on target. So this season they have managed 5 goals from 7 efforts to hit the target. Again it’s a pattern that cannot be sustained, and they should be opposed this week.
Barnsley are outsiders in this, but we shouldn’t forget that Forest survived last season on goal different only (on the last day of the season thanks to a final day win) and lost 16 games on the road – more than any other side in the Championship with the exception of Rotherham.
At 2/1 Barnsley are the nap of the day.
1pt Millwall to beat Ipswich at 1/1 (Bet365)
1pt Cardiff to beat Sheffield United at 10/11 (Bet365)
2pts Barnsley to beat Nott’m Forest at 2/1 (Bet365)
1pt Millwall, Cardiff, Barnsley all the win at 10.5/1 (Bet365)