F1 - Belgium GP
The summer break comes to a deafening end as the teams return to racing in the Ardennes Forest for the Spa-Francorchamps Belgium Grand Prix.
Belgium is all about power and grunt. You don't need a particularly well balanced car. You don't need stability. You just need horse power, and lots of it.
It's no coincidence that Mercedes have won here in each of the last two years, and it would surely have been three were it not for the 2014 collision between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg.
Despite an improved package from Ferrari this season, the power circuits have continued to reward the German team, with a 1-2 in Canada, and Bottas taking victory in Austria. We'll split the stakes on the Race Winner market, backing Hamilton to bank a much needed fifth win of the season at 10/11, but also chucking a small e/w bet at Bottas as a saver. If Hamilton chucks it away, there's every chance it is Bottas who mops up. At 5/1 he's a terrific e/w bet (top 2 pays out at 1/3 odds).
2.2pts Hamilton to win at 10/11 at Stan James
1pt e/w Bottas to win at 5/1 (general)
In the pack behind, it doesn't take a huge leap from the above to place Sergio Perez in the Top 6 when everything has played out. The Force India has the Mercedes power unit in the back, and they achieved on of their best weekend's this season over in Canada. Perez has finished in the Top 6 three times this season, but been on the cusp a further three times. With the power a distinct advantage, the team will view anything worse than a 6th place as a missed opportunity, so we should back the Mexican at 11/8 to grab some decent points.
1pt Perez to finish in the Top 6 at 11/8 (General)
Staying on the Mercedes engine theme, Felipe Massa looks a good pick at 7/10 with Bwin to finish in the points. The Brazilian has only finished outside the points in one of his last 11 starts here, and will relish the opportunity that the long straights afford his team. It should give him a clear advantage over the likes of Toro Rosso and Haas who would usually be vying closely for the scrappy end of the points paying positions.
1pt Massa to finish in the points at 7/10 with Bwin
Finally, at the time of writing, the forecasts are for a rain free race on Sunday (much can change in the micro climate of the Ardennes Forest of course), and based on that, we'd be willing to chuck a couple of sheckles at No Safety Car coming out this year.
The advent of the Virtual Safety car is of course a help for this bet, with some minor incidents no longer requiring the flashy car with a flashy light to make it onto the track in a physical form. In fact, we saw just that here in 2015. Over the past decade we've had Safety Cars in 2016, 2012, 2011 and 2010. The other six races have been clear - and don't forget a couple of those years were extremely wet. At an appealing 7/4, we'll back no appearance this year.
2pts No Safety Car at 7/4 (Generally)