Mayweather v McGregor
On Saturday night the talking will finally be over. The fight that all the world is talking about will finally get going in the T-Mobile Arena, and not a minute too soon as far as we're concerned - mostly so we can stop listening to all the publicity inciting insults between the pair and get on with the real business.
It's a fight no-one can ignore of course - 5 million pay-per-views are expected - so if you can't beat then, join them I guess.
From a betting angle, it's interesting to see that whilst the boxing and UFC pundits are united in saying that a McGregor win would be one the the biggest upsets in sporting history, the bookmakers aren't singing from the same hymn sheet - they make Mayweather their 2/7 favourite. Hardly the biggest cert of all time based purely on those odds - the same price as Man City are to win away at Bournemouth earlier in the day for instance.
McGregor is now a 7/2 shot to win the fight - the same price, for reference, as a draw between Chelsea and Everton on Sunday.....
So what's at work here? Well firstly, the bookies are seeing a mountain of money for McGregor. All the UFC fans are sticking their money on their man, and the fancy prices that were available on the Irishman a few months ago have long gone. The bookies really are running for cover, with huge liabilities mounting up on the outsider. Add this to the fact it's going to be the biggest staking boxing event of all time, and there will be more than a few traders (not to mention MDs of Bookmakers) struggling to sleep on Saturday.
All this leads to our angle on the fight. Mayweather, undeafeated in 49 fights, and winning by knock-out in 26 of them simply has to be the value. He's been out the ring a couple of years, but last time he was here he was beating Manny Pacquaio. He's also beaten Saul Alvarez, Miguel Cotto, Victor Ortiz, Shane Mosley, Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton amongst many others, and won world titles are five weights in his career.
McGregor will have the advantage of size, weight, reach and youth (to some extent) on his side, but only being allowed to punch will render a huge slice of his fighting talent worthless in the ring on Saturday. He's also being asked to go far deeper into a fight than he's ever done before, so fitness has to be a big doubt for him, regardless of Mayweather's time out of the ring.
He's also got to land against one of the best defence's in the business. Many far more experienced boxers have come up short here, so how he's going to fare is another big question mark.
So, all that said, he's what we think will happen.
McGregor steps out early, plenty of power and comes at Mayweather. He hopes to land something significant to give himself some sort of chance in the fight.
Mayweather defends, as only Mayweather can. He rides the storm. He humours McGregor, as the Irishman unleashes his best efforts. He lets him tire.
4-5 rounds in, Mayweather starts to get involved. He jabs in and out. He keeps away from any replies McGregor may have. He starts to get on top. He starts to make hay against the increasingly fatigued McGregor. Perhaps we get some frustration coming through. Perhaps we see a rule or two broken, and some sort of penalty against the Irishman (although he'll be in plenty of trouble if he deviates too far from the acceptable).
Deeper into the fight, we see Mayweather really take over. And thats when the referee will be forced to perform his duty, and step in from stage left to save McGregor from the ultimate lesson. It leaves the opportunity for a rematch of course. McGregor can walk away head held high and proclaim he still had more. Boxing keeps it's head high and doesn't have to deal with the humility of their legend being beaten by someone with no right to be in the same ring.
Everyone is happy. Ish.
1pt Mayweather to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification at 4/5 with Betfred
2pts Mayweather to win in Rounds 7-12 at 15/4 with SportingBet