Japanese GP
*Post Qualifying Update*
The main preview can be found below, but not a great deal has changed really, meaning that most of our earlier advice still stands. Vettel lines up 2nd behind Hamilton, and he's out to 7/2 on the exchanges. If you've not already backed him, that's definitely a backable price and we're going to take this opportunity to add a point to our betting portfolio on himm again now. His race pace should be strong, and he can trouble Hamilton.
New Bet: 1pt Vettel to win at 7/2 (Betfair)
Lance Stroll lines up 15th, and his odds seem reasonable at 5/2, although it would have been nice to see him closer to the top 10, while the weather forecasts still support the Total Finishers and Safety Car bets strongly.
The bet we will add now is down to the fact we see Bottas starting 6th and Raikkonen in 10th. That could leave the door open for Daniel Ricciardo (3rd on the grid) to take a ninth podium in 12 starts - available at even money. It looks a blinder given how consistent he is week in week out.
New Bet: 2pts Ricciardo to finish on the Podium
Content Written on October 4th
With five races left, the 2017 Championship is slowly burning out of life, with Lewis Hamilton looking increasingly likely to confirm the title with a race or two to spare. Ferrari just seem to have hit all the bad luck in one go.
We head to Japan - a circuit of contrast with the first sector very much about efficient aero, and the second half of the lap taken at full throttle. So while Red Bull will enjoy the first part, the Mercedes should more than make up for it in the later part of the lap. The trump card could yet be Ferrari though, who have looked really impressive over the past few weeks even if results haven't reflected it and look to have found a lovely balance.
Vettel was supreme in his drive from the back in Malaysia, on a track which probably isn't enormously different to Japan, and prior to his first lap incident in Singapore had looked the class of the field throughout practice. Ahead of that race he'd taken three straight podiums, and he looks capable of winning here. Vettel has won here four times before in his Red Bull days, so has form here and will look to wrestle away Mercedes grip on the race in recent years.
Sporting Bet offer 14/5 and that looks a decent enough price for the German in this one.
1pt Sebastian Vettel to win the Japanese GP at 14/5
Further down the order, Lance Stroll certainly looks to have upped his game since the start of the season. A few races in plenty of noises were being made about his lack of consistency, but he's now taken points in six of the last nine races, so odds of 9/4 about a repeat look generous indeed. He's finished in front of Felipe Massa in each of the last three outings, but is twice the price, and that just feels wrong on recent form.
2pts Lance Stroll to finish in the poiints in the Japanese GP at 9/4
Now for some stats led bets.....
We'll start with the Safety Car which looks to be getting overrated based on our stats. We've seen the pace car appear in six of the last 11 races in Japan, but two of those years were wet. We are currently forecast a dry race, which moves the stats to four appearances in nine races.
You can currently get 13/8 with William Hill that we have a Safety Car free race, and that looks value for money. We've only seen six races with Safety Car's this year, as the Virtual SC zones negate the need on some occasions, while if it does turn out to be dry,
2pts No Safety Car at 13/8
Finally, consider backing Over 16.5 Finishers here which looks poorly judged. Over the past 11 years, no track has seen a higher % of starters get to the finish line as Japan. Big run off areas, and an abscence of heavy breaking points has tended to ensure incidents are rare here. Of course over the years there have been different grid sizes, but on an adjusted based, we'd have seen an average of 17.1 finishers from a 20 runner field over that period - a figure that would have been higher had it not been for a very wet race in 2007.
Indeed, both 2016 and 2015 saw the entire field safely home, and 2014 saw just one retirement despite rain hitting the track during the race. The 6/4 generally available on the Over 16.5 Finishers is great value, as is Paddy Powers 10/3 on Over 17.5.
2pts Over 16.5 Finishers at 6/4
1pt Over 17.5 Finishers at 10/3