Malaysian Moto GP
When it rains, we tip Andrea Dovizioso and Danillo Petrucci. That's just how we do it, and it's a proven formula. The bookmakers simply have memories like goldfish and time after time fail to take proper account of the chances of this pair.
We regularly talk about this, but in keeping with us being StattoBets it would probably be fair to share a little of the underlying data with you. The below table, populated with all the data since the beginning of the 2011 Moto GP season compares rider performance in dry races versus those in wet races. Two names jump out immediately - you've guessed them haven't you!? Dovi and Petrucci.
Jack Miller gets an honourable mention, as does Cal Crutchlow, but not to quite the same extent, while Jorge Lorenzo and Johann Zarco stand out on the other end of the scale - Zarco probably unreasonably due to the small sample, and it's a trend likely to revert.
Looking back at Petrucci, has has scored just one podium finish in 50 dry races, but an impressive five in 12 starts in the wet! Dovizioso has a similar strike rate - 13 podiums in 58 dry starts (22.4%) compared to seven in 12 wet races (58%).
So what's the weather this weekend?
A very high chance of showers, and an awesome performance in first practice from Dovizioso make him a certain bet at this point at 2/1 with Sky Bet, while we will also chuck a point e/w at Petrucci at 16/1 with BetStars or BWin.
Recommended Bets
2pts Dovizioso to win at 2/1
1pt e/w Petrucci to win at 16/1