Tuesday Champions League
Three matches into the group stages, we've updated our Elo ratings. We've seen a rise for Basel following strong wins over Benfica and CSKA, and a fall for the Russian's - hardly surprising after their 4-1 defeat to Man United and 2-0 defeat at home to Basel.
There is a strong argument that the bookmakers have overreacted to recent form too much however, and CSKA may well remain the marginally stronger of the two, which gives them a punchers chance when the pair meet in Switzerland on Tuesday. For a start off, the Russian League is considerably strong than the Swiss - holding an average Elo rating of 1580 versus 1451 for Switzerland.
Factor in home advantage in this one, it's fair to say Basel should be favourites, but nothing like as strong as the market is suggesting in our view. We'd probably pitch the tie at something like Basel as the 11/8 favourites, so it's a big surprise to see them as short as 8/11 in the market.
We'll take CSKA Moscow with a goal start at 11/10 - that means you win with an away win or a draw.
CSKA (+1) to beat Basel at 11/10