World Championships Day 7
The seeds continued to fall at the Ally Pally on Tuesday, as Adrian Lewis and James Wade joined Dave Chisnall, Jelle Klassen and Joe Cullen in the list of those who wont return after Christmas. On Wednesday we have Justin Pipe, Michael Smith and Simon Whitlock in action as they bid to avoid the chop.
Justin Pipe v ???
We’ll start with the Pipe match, which at the time of writing pitches him against an unknown qualifier. That will be either Xiao Chen Zong or more likely, New Zealand qualifier Bernie Smith. Either should be a pretty straight-forward opponent for Pipe who enjoyed a good run to the semi-finals of the Players Championships in November and will be keen to arrest a slight slide down the rankings. Without knowing who will start with the darts, it’s hard to justify getting involved at the prices on the handicap, but we do like the look of 1st Leg Winning Colour being Green. It might sound a bit of a random bet, but you know us, it’s all stats led, and Pipe has a strong record of taking out green doubles - he much prefers to go the 16’s route than the 20’s, which limits the likelihood of Red 20/10 being the outcome. Our sample has taken over 120 winning legs from Pipe, where he has taken out a green finish 42% of the time. Given he’s the most likely winner in the leg, the 7/4 with Paddy Power is slightly value.
1pt 1st Leg Winning Colour to be Green at 7/4 (Paddy Power)
Michael Smith v Steve Lennon
We’ll go the opposite way in the Michael Smith v Steve Lennon match. Smith is very much a 20’s man when it comes to the check out and he’s a 2/5 shot to win the match, so there’s every chance we see a 20 or 10 as the final dart of the match. Over a sample of over 400 leg wins from Smith, we see him finishing on Double 20 in around 36% of legs and Double 10 in 22%. That implies fair odds on the two outcomes might reasonably be 7/4 and 7/2, so the offer of 3/1 and 13/2 respectively with Betfred seem very fair indeed.
1pt Match Winning Double to be Double 20 at 3/1 (Betfred)
2pts Match Winning Double to be Double 10 at 13/2 (Betfred)
Simon Whitlock v Martin Schindler
Finally, lovable Aussie Simon Whitlock takes on Martin Schindler, and although our data is relatively sparse on the underdog, he isn’t a massive 180 chucker from the results we have - averaging just over 0.12 per leg. That’s considerably lower than we’d expect the Wizard to chuck in - probably somewhere near double the expected rate per leg, and the 8/11 on offer about Whitlock hitting the most 180s looks excellent value in this one.
He’s 1/4 to win the match, which means there is every chance it’s a short format match, but there will still be a minimum of nine legs, and the expectancy if closer to 16 being played in total. That’s long enough to ensure Whitlock enough time to get his nose in front on the maximum front.
2.2pts Whitlock to hit more 180s than Martin Schindler (Unibet)