World Championships Day 9 - Evening Session
The shit gets real on Friday evening - MvG, Gary Anderson and Mensur Suljovic hit the stage, and punters will no doubt be lining them up in a treble to try to extract a little bit of hay from the bookies. It won’t be that simple though given the treble only pays 2/5 so if that’s your thing, you might need to consider the handicap markets.
Suljovic v Thornton
Mesur Suljovic has enjoyed a tremendous rise up the ranks this season - now sitting in 5th place having won the Champions League of Darts, reached the semi-finals at the World Grand Prix, and the Quarter Finals at The Masters, the World Matchplay, the European Championships and the Grand Slam of Darts. Indeed, he’s achieved more in 2017 than the rest of his career put together. Thornton by contrast has struggled to replicate his best form this season, reaching just two quarter finals this season and dropping to 28th in the Order of Merit. Mensur should beat him, so consider the (-2.5) handicap at 11/8. He needs to win 4-0 or 4-1 to land it, but there is every chance.
In terms of the finishes, Mensur is an odd sort. He likes double 14. He’s never been one to conform, but it’s a surprise the bookies haven’t noticed it enough. He checks out around 16% of his legs on the double, which makes the 9/1 on offer about the match winning double being d14 very generous with BetFred, Coral or Ladbrokes. With d12 and d18 representing higher than usual as well, the Red Match Winning Double at 4/9 is overpriced, and we’ll turn that into a double with another match.
2pts Match Winning Double to be d14 at 9/1 - Coral/BetFred/Ladbrokes
Anderson v Lim
That match is Gary Anderson v Paul Lim, as the World Number 2 comes looking for revenge for the 2017 World Cup defeat he suffered at the hands of Lim. The Singapore player is well past his best, and odds of 1/25 on the Scot offer almost no angles in the match betting at all. We simply don’t have enough recent data to justify a play in the 180s markets, but we could consider the colour of final double (are you seeing the pattern yet?).
Anderson avoids double 16 like the plague, which almost always leaves him running down the 20/10/5 route. He’s a decent enough finisher these days, so that rarely progresses past attempts at Tops or 10s, meaning he actually finishes over 50% on one or other. Add in the odd d12 or d18, and the odds on another match ending in Red look appealing.
1pt Both Anderson v Lim and Suljovic v Thornton to end on a Red Double - Double pays 1.07/1
Michael van Gerwen v James Wilson
Another match likely to be very one-sided, MvG already has the tournament highest average and will look to improve on that again. He’s quite frankly in a class of his own, and has won 10 of the last 12 ranking events, so don’t expect too much resistance here.
James Wilson is a good scorer though, so we might see a closer battle on the 180 front, and while MvG is one of the best in the business in that department too, the 9/4 on Wilson getting the most in the match is too long. Given that MvG may power his way through the match and keep the length down, it might not take too many to win this, and Wilson is more than capable. He hit 5 in 18 legs in the first round, so knows how to lay them in. It’s also worth trying a small bet on him getting over 6.5 in the match at 21/10. If he gets firing, he’ll nick the odd leg, which could extend matters long enough to get him over the line on this one.
1pt Wilson Most 180s at 9/4
1pt Wilson to hit Over 6.5 180s at 21/10