Derby v Bristol City
Ever since his arrival at Derby County, Gary Rowett has continued to enhance his already excellent reputation, and his win at Birmingham last weekend moved him past the 50% win rate since he joined the Rams - they have now tasted victory 20 times in 39 matches since he joined, propelling them to 2nd in the division and on the brink of promotion back to the promised land.
Derby have been a club progressively building behind the scenes, and whilst a few of the managerial appointments seemed to lack a certain something at times, generally the trend has been very positive around the club.
They come into Friday night’s game with Bristol City as favourites therefore, but it’s easy to argue they should be shorter than the even money which many firms are offering. Take out that unfortunate 2-0 defeat at Old Trafford (they were level until the 85th minute) and they are unbeaten since November, and they have now kept clean sheets in six of their last eight league games. The run has come at just the sort of time you need if you are to enter the run-in with confidence and momentum.
Exactly the opposite has occured at Bristol City, who are enjoying a fabulous season under Lee Johnson, but for whom the wheels look in danger of falling off. The Robins enjoyed a great December, collecting 13 points from six matches which included a tough tie against Wolves, but have now lost five on the bounce when including Cup defeats to Watford and Man City.
That 2-1 defeat to City was of course a fabulous result - far exceeding expectations, but in terms of this match, you wouldn’t blame the Robins if their mind was starting to drift onto next Tuesday night and perhaps beyond. In some ways, a sound thrashing might have allowed them to prepare better for this encounter, but the dream remains alive.
Similarly, as far as the season ahead is concerned, being knocked out of the FA Cup might well be a blessing for their play-off push, but for their immediate chances it surely is another negative ahead of this game. Regardless of your opponent, five straight defeats has to have some impact, especially given Villa thumped them 5-0. Add in that captain Bailey Wright is a doubt, and we have to back Derby in this one.
2pts Derby County to beat Bristol City at 21/20