Championship Best Bets
We’re siding with a couple of home teams in the Championship this weekend as we look to QPR and Preston to bring home the bacon.
QPR have already shown they are capable of upsetting the big boys when buoyed by their own fans on several occasions this season - already having beaten Wolves, Sheffield United and Cardiff at Loftus Road, and Middlesbrough might be penned in for joining that list this weekend. The first thing to note this season has been just how much QPR have preferred home comforts - they have lost just three of 13 at home, while winning just twice from 14 starts on their travels. They are coming out of a pretty tough run through December, but wins against Cardiff and Burton seem to have turned the corner for them now.
Middlesbrough have been a real mixed bag of late - they have won won nine and lost eight of their last 17. Not a draw in sight! It’s a strange phenomenon, but one thing which stands out are the teams they have beaten recently. Almost exclusively sides either near the foot of the table or struggling for one reason or another - Sunderland, Bolton, Ipswich and Birmingham all fit that description to some extent.
Defeats to Fulham, Aston Villa, Bristol City, Derby, Leeds and Cardiff suggest that they aren’t carrying that winning mentality into the bigger games, and we reckon QPR are being significantly underrated at 12/5 at home in this one.
3pts QPR to beat Middlesbrough at 12/5 (Betfair)
Preston were on the list of teams Middlesbrough did manage to beat, but that result bucked the trend, and all the data suggests that North End were unlucky that afternoon. That 3-2 defeat was the only negative in an otherwise unbeaten run stretching back 11 games to mid November.
That’s also included impressive wins at Cardiff and Bristol City, so fixtures haven’t fallen especially kindly to allow that run to materialise. Or ratings are currently showing Preston as second only to Wolves in their quality over the past 10 games, while Birmingham are rooted firmly in the bottom five based on chances created and conceded.
Blues have of course won three of their last four outings, but one (or three) swallows don’t make a summer as they say, and a 1-0 home win over Burton certainly doesn’t confirm a change in fortunes. Away from home they also have just the one win to speak of all season.
Preston have a reasonably limited squad, but Paul Huntington and Josh Earl are expected to return to boost the ranks, while Tommy Spurr, Sean Maguire and Louis Moult will all miss out. Birmingham are reporting one, as yet unnamed, absence, but otherwise come into this unchanged.
2pts Preston to beat Birmingham at 4/5 (BetVictor)