Premier League 3pms
A friend mentioned a theory to me recently. He mused that the incredible competitiveness of Premier League sides outside the Top 6 may very well see the draw regularly overpriced these days. Just seven points separate 9th from 19th at the time of writing. With things this tight, we further pondered whether loss aversion (that is fear of losing from a winning position) would be amplified.
Loss aversion syndrome does quite the opposite of course, and is the reason that draws are statistically more likely to occur than would be the case if goals scored by each side were truly independent of each other. Put simply, a team in a winning position feels they have more to lose by attacking (and therefore increased risk conceding), and sits back. The side behind have nothing to lose, but fear that, and attack harder. The net result of these behaviours is what drives increased draw rates in local derbies and big cup ties.
So back to the Premier League, and we had a look at the 124 games played between non-big-six sides this season. 35.5% have ended in draws (around a 7/4 shot) and level stakes on the draws over all 124 matches would have seen you return almost 20% profit on your investment.
And this weekend looks to have some more that fit the biil!
Starting at Stoke, they take on Brighton, and that looks every bit the tight cagey affair you often get in these types of matches. The Potters draw 0-0 with Watford a fornight ago of course, and Brighton have drawn four of their last eight in the non-top-six category.
As the lowest scorers on the road this season (just six in the league away), Brighton will come with a game plan to kill the game, and 9/4 looks a fair price on the stalemate here.
Just a point splits West Ham and Watford, and the Hammers have chalked up draws against Bournemouth (2) and Crystal Palace since Christmas. They look a more solid outfit under David Moyes and they are capable of containing the spirit of Watford far more effectively than Chelsea managed in midweek.
It would be no surprise to see another draw in this one, so back the 23/10 is the advice here.
Finally, add a third in - one winner will cover the bets. Swansea v Burnley is the match in question, and our model is projecting the expected average goals in this fixture to be just 2.1. That has to accelerate the chance of a draw significantly. Swansea have drawn four of their last eight in all competitions, while Burnley have seen five of their last ten end in draws. Th price on this one is 21/10 so it makes the shortlist.
1pt Draw - Stoke v Brighton at 9/4
1pt Draw - West Ham v Watford at 23/10
1pt Draw - Swansea v Burnley at 21/10
3 x 0.5pt Doubles
1 x 0.5pt Treble
Total Stake = 5pts