Premier League Darts - Week 3
Suljovic v Smith
Smith has started the Premier League with back-to-back wins, while Suljovic has lost his opening two matches. That hides the real story though, with Smith arguably really lucky to beat an injured Gary Anderson in Wk1, and then scraping bast Daryl Gurney last week, while Suljovic will be disappointed to have lost to Simon Whitlock on the opening week despite averaging nearly 104.
This could well see the tables turned, but the bookmakers look to have it covered with Suljovic chalked up as the favourite. Instead consider the Player to hit Highest Checkout, where you can get 10/11 on Suljovic. Not only is he favourite to hit the most legs, he's also a much better conbination finisher - Smith being one of the tamest of the top players, and he looks worth taking on in this market.
Also try a point on the match winning double being d10. Smith loves going the 20/10/5 route, and isn't the most prolofic finisher, which always brings the d10 into play, while Suljovic will mix up his finishes, and over averages on d10 compared to the field. We'd be closer to 9/2 about this being the final dart of the match, so 7/1 is fair.
2.2pts Suljovic to hit the highest check out at 10/11 (General)
1pt Match Winning Double to be d10 at 7/1 (General)
Gurney v Price
We have two really closely matched players here. Gurney has opened the competition with the higher average, but his finishing has let him down at times and each player has just a single point so far. Gurney certainly looks short enough at odds-on prices and it's probably reasonable that the draw is the most likely correct score.
If Price does win, and he's certainly capable, it would be no surprise to see him edge through 7-5 (given he'll be throwing on all the even numbered legs of course). Last season, of the 27 "away" wins in the league, 11 were by the 7-5 scoreline, and that's enough to persuade us to back that scoreline at a handy 8/1.
1pt Price to win 7-5 at 8/1
Wright v Cross
The World Champion is yet to catch fire on this stage, but it's surely only a matter of time. Rob Cross was outclassed by Michael van Gerwen on opening night, and it was a similar story against Simon Whitlock last week. Peter Wright on the other hand defeated MvG last week, so will come into this one full of confidence.
The bookies make Wright their slight favourite, and given he starts with the darts, that looks fair enough to be honest. You could argue he is slight value, but there is a huge doubt about which Rob Cross will turn up on Thursday, and we'll happily just watch and enjoy this one with a bet I think.
No Bet
Anderson v van Gerwen
Another really tough one to work out. Michael van Gerwen is almost unplayable when he gets going, but he's not quite hit the heights we know he's capable of this season so far - although he is averaging over 100 regardless!
Anderson was clearly in pain on week 1, but looked back to his usual form in week 2 against Gerwyn Price and will at least pose a threat. At 4/7 MvG is surely too short in the match betting market to entertain against a player as good as Anderson, so a correct score bet might represent better value. In the last four Premier League matches between the men, in which Anderson has started with the darts in hand, MvG has twice won 7-5, and we'll stick with that pattern in this one at odds of 6/1 with Stan James. That's definitely a value bet, and after last week's misses, we're surely due to hit one of these soon!
1pt MvG to win 7-5 at 6/1 (Stan James)
Whitlock v van Barneveld
The final match of the night should be a real classic. Whitlock has been incredible over the first couple of weeks - beat Suljovic with a 106.4 average, and then smashing Rob Cross 7-1. His double success rate has been an almighty 54%.
Barney has looked decent himself, and is certainly the more fancied player under usual circumstances, and he's an odds-on shot with the layers.
We can't have that given the recent form, as it has forced Whitlock out to 11/4, and that's surely underrating a man who is on a decent charge back up the Order of Merit. This time last year, Barney was 8th on the OOM, while Whitlock was 16th. Now it is the Aussie inside the Top 8, and he surely has every chance in this one.
The pair have split their previous meetings almost down the middle (Whitlock 13 wins, Barney 17 wins) and I'd rather be with the outsider in what should be a very close match. Also put half a point on the 7-4 scoreline at double digit prices.
1pt Whitlock to beat van Barneveld at 11/4 (Betfair)
0.5pts Whitlock to win 7-4 at 10/1 (Sky Bet)