League One Best Bets
It’s always dangerous to get too carried away with a short term upturn in fortunes, but at 2/1, there is surely enough juice in the price of Southend to warrant backing them to beat a Portsmouth side who look something short of their best right now.
The Shrimpers are only 5 pts worse off than Pompey and have enjoyed their best form at home - winning exactly half of their 16 matches at Roots Hall. Most recently, their form has really picked up, beating Scunthorpe, Peterborough and high-flyers Wigan, and taking a point home from Bury. Prior to that of course we must mention that they lost eight out of nine through January and December.
Portsmouth have hit a sticky patch recently after enjoying a fine spell at the end of 2017. They won no fewer than nine times through November and December (from 11 matches), but one wonders if they took the New Years celebrations a touch too far, as they have now lost five from eight since the turn of the year. Admittedly, it’s been a tough run that has seen them face Shrewsbury, Scunthorpe, Blackburn and Rotherham among others, but nevertheless, it must have dented confidence.
Southend are available at 2/1 for this one at that really appeals against a side who have lost 9 out of 15 away from home this campaign.
1pt Southend to beat Portsmouth at 2/1 (General)
Regular readers will know just how highly we rate Plymouth, and they have now won nine of their last 13 in the division - drawing a further three and losing just once (to Wigan). Recent wins over Blackburn and away at Shrewsbury have shown that they really can mix it with the best in the division, and we don’t mind admitting we’re beginning to get a bit excited about that 150/1 Top 6 bet we recommended just four weeks ago - it’s now no longer than 10/1.
Anyway, they travel to Oxford this weekend, and it’s surprising to see them chalked up as the outsiders in this one given the Us have lost five of their last six and have kept just one clean sheet since Christmas. It was 4-0 to Oxford when the sides met at Home Park back in November of course, but plenty has changed since then, and it will surely provide extra motivation for Plymouth to go out and put in another stellar performance. They are on the brink of challenging for Promotion, something which looked unheard of a couple of months ago, and surely represent great value at 9/5 in this one.
2.5pts Plymouth to beat Oxford at 9/5
Another away side who could be worth slipping in are Bristol Rovers, as they make the trip over to AFC Wimbledon. The Pirates are steady performers under Darrell Clarke and are in a decent bit of form right now, winning five and drawing three from their last nine. The season is beginning to fizzle out for them perhaps, but there is still time for them to reignite a promotion push, or potentially get sucked into a relegation fight, so they should be more than up for this.
AFC Wimbledon are enduring an unwelcome run of late, losing their last four - 0-2 at Rotherham, 1-2 at Bury, 1-3 at home to Northampton, and 2-4 against Plymouth. That’s not ideal for a side in the relegation zone, a couple of points from safety and looking up at Oldham and Northampton who appear to be getting their act together a little bit.
This therefore spells an opportunity for Bristol Rovers to pounce on that nervousness, and collect all three points.
1pt Bristol Rovers to beat AFC Wimbledon at 19/10 (General)
Finally in League One, it could pay to back Over 2.5 Goals in the Gillingham v Walsall match. Our shot data suggests that both are creating and conceding more than enough chances to ensure this is an entertaining affair, and the stats for both sides this season support the trend strongly.
Starting with Gillingham, after a pretty toothless start to the campaign, the Gills have certainly sharpened their attack more recently, and have scored in all but one of their last 15 matches, and exactly the same is true of their opponents in that run also. That’s ensured “Both Teams to Score” has landed in 13 of their last 15, and there have been 45 goals in that run - an average of 3.00 per match.
Taking the same sample for Walsall (15 matches), they have scored in 13 of 15, conceded in 12 of 15 and seen Both Teams to Score land in 11 of the matches - a strike rate of 73%. In that 15 match spell, there have been a total of 44 goals - or 2.93 per match.
Given we’re recommending betting over goals, from their combined samples of matches (giving us the most recent 30 games), Over 2.5 has landed in 20, and Over 3.5 in 9. We’ll split the stakes in this one, and back both lines.
4pts Over 2.5 Goals in Gillingham v Walsall at 6/5
2pts Over 3.5 Goals in Gillingham v Walsall at 3/1