Cheltenham Festival - Day 2 Trends
Here we cover the most important trends for the second day of the Festival.
Before we do however, there's one big caveat, which it's important to understand. These trends tell us what the winners have looked like - but does not consider whether that trend has under or over performed versus the expected numbers given the make up of the race.
Example:
- 75% of winners of Race X have been aged four or five.
It sounds good of course, but if 95% of the runners in this race over the years were aged four or five, it would actually be a negative. Tread carefully....
Ballymore Novices' Hurdle
A 2m 5f challenge for novice stayers, aged four or more, and one where the winner almost always has proved themselves over hurdles.
- 26 of the last 27 winners have had at least three previous tests over hurdles
- 28 of the last 30 winners sat inside the top six in the betting, and 11 of the last 13 were inside the fop four in the betting.
- 31 of the last 32 winners finished either first or second in their last run out before the festival.
- 6-year-olds have won 14 of the last 22 races, and only one winner since 1980 has been older than six.
- 17 of the last 19 winners were NH bred
- Ex-flat horses have a terrible record - none have won from 28 attempts since 2005
RSA Chase
Run over three miles, this Novice chase is open to horses aged five and older.
- 15 of the last 16 winners had raced over fences at least three times before.
- The last 13 winners had all placed in Grade 1 or Grade 2 chases previously.
- 24 of the last 28 winners had finished 1st or 2nd on their last run before the Festival.
- 20 of the last 23 winners were racing as Novices Hurdlers in the previous season.
- Seven-year-olds have won eight of the last 10 renewals.
- Irish bred horses have won 18 of the last 21
- Five of the last eight winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season.
Coral Cup
A 2m 5f affair, this is always a huge race at the Festival, and we're likely to see some extra places available closer to the time.
- 10 of the last 13 winners were second season hurdlers
- 7 of the last 9 winners came from within the top 8 highest weighted horses.
- 12 of the last 15 winners had won no more than 1 previous handicap race.
- 7 of the last 13 winners won their previous races
- Only one of the last 24 winners was rated higher than 148
- 18 of the last 23 winners won earlier in the season
- 11 of the last 12 came from within the top 7 in the betting market.
- 8 of the last 16 winners have been French-bred
- Horses aged 10 or more generally don't perform - just 2 from 30 have placed this century.
- 12 of the last 13 winners had run 32 days or longer before the festival.
Queen Mother Champion Chase
The feature race on the second day of the Festival, the Queen Mother Champion Chase is a Grade 1 race, run over 2 miles.
- 30 of the last 32 winners have previously won over course and distance, or had won over 2m 2f in their career.
- 16 of the last 17 winners had raced no more than four times in the current season
- 11 of the last 15 winners took on the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown
- The Arkle Trophy winners alwasy go well here - 14 of the last 16 have placed in this event!
- 14 of the last 15 winners were rated 160 or higher
- 22 of the last 31 winners have previously placed at a Cheltenham Festival race
- 34 of the last 36 have gone off shorter than 11/1
- 15 of the last 19 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting.
- 13 of the last 18 winners ran in either the Arkle or the Champion Chase the year before.
- 13 of the last 15 winners had run over fences at least five times
- 13 of the last 15 had been out over the Cheltenham fences previously.
Cross Country Chase
The fifth race, this is a full 3m 7f run out. Only the strongest survive this one.
- 7 of the last 11 winners have been aged 10 or more
- Its more than possible to win with top weight in this one, so look for the quality horses regardless of the penalties applied.
- Enda Bolga has won this race four times in 11 years.
- The Irish have won this one 11 out of 13 times in recent years.
- 16 out of 20 came from the Top 3 in the betting
- 7 of the last 13 winners ran in the December Cross Country race here.
Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle
Raced over 2m 1f, this is something of a mine-field and it can pay to look for the longer priced selections in this one.
- 6 from 11 have been French bred
- 5 from 6 returned at between 25/1 and 40/1
- 6 from 11 have run exactly three times previously
- 6 from 10 won last time out before the festival
- 7 from 11 were beaten on their first two starts over hurdles
- 8 from 11 ran within 25 days of the Festival
- 6 of the last 7 came from the bottom half of the weights
- 12 from 12 were rated between 124 and 134
Weatherbys Champion Bumper
- 23 from 25 won last time out
- 17 from 25 were inside the Top 6 in the betting
- Irish raiders have won this in 17 out of 23 runs
- 13 of 23 were unbeaten in bumpers.
- 15 from 17 opened their careers in Ireland
- 11 from 12 were agaed 5 or 6