Honda Classic
The PGA Tour switches from West Coast to East Coast this week for the Honda Classic, played on the ultra-challenging PGA National course. It's a real challenge with water hazards all over the place, plenty of strategically placed bunkers, and wind often playing a part as well.
Historically it's a course which really rewards accurate play down the fairways, rather than any great distance off the tee, and we've also seen success for players who can scramble their way out of difficulty as well. That perhaps makes sense with an opportunity to play into the greens with more ingenuity than some tracks might allow.
Looking at those two key stats then, we've picked out three who could go well here this week, starting with Brian Harman. He's risen the best part of 100 places in the world rankings over the past 12 months, and currently ranks 9th on the tour for driving accuracy. He's also got some decent course form here, having shot a 61 back in 2012 enroute to a 12th place finish, and was also tied 11th here in 2015.
Recently he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance, but before that he had put together finishes of 20-4-3-4-8-5, including a fourth place at the Sony Open - a tournament which can give clues for this track. All in all he looks really well priced at 33/1 with Sky Bet offering an almighty eight places.
1pt e/w Brian Harman at 33/1 (1/5, 8 places)
Next up we have Gary Woodland who claimed the runners-up spot here last season. He missed the cut at the AT&T from Pebble Beach, but won the Phoenix Open the week before, was 12th at the Farmers Insurance, and finished 7th at the Sony Open, so the World Number 26 is clearly in decent form.
While Woodland doesn't tick quite the right boxes we were looking for, he's currently 2nd on tour for GIR percentage, and 5th for Strokes Gained Putting, which should both help him out this weekend if he shows more distance than required off the tee.
1pt e/w Gary Woodland at 25/1 (1/5 8 places)
Looking much further down the order, Brian Stuard get the nod as we look for a player to finish higher than many might expect.
Stuard tied 4th for the Sony Open - an excellent result by his standards, and he's currently 43rd in the FedEx Cup. Most telling for this week however is his 7th place rank on driving accuracy, which is probably no fluke given that he finished 5th on that particular metric over the entire 2017 season, and 4th in 2016.
He's posted three top 30 finishes here in his last four visits, so clearly likes the track and it should suit his strength down to a tee to excuse the pun.
1pt Brian Stuard to finish in the Top 20 at 10/1
0.5pts e/w Stuard at 200/1 (1/5 8 places)