Tshwane Open
The European Tour heads down to South Africa for a co-sanctioned event this week - nicely timed to swing well south of the "Beast from the East".
The Tshwane Open has historically been dominated by South African's, with home advantage being a distinct edge, although we should remember that a relatively modest number of Europeans pen this event into their diaries. Typically we're looking at a well established local player, who has achieved success on the main tour. Since moving to the Pretoria Country Club the event has been won by George Coetzee, Charl Schwartzel and Dean Burmester.
In terms of important style fits, while the course doesn't look at first glance to be particularly long, the stats so far have certainly suggested it is one for the bombers, so getting good distance off the tee is something to consider here. Scrambling and Par 4 performance have also been reasonable indicators of likely success.
So who are we backing?
Well, with eight places on offer again from Sky Bet, there is little doubt who our bookmaker of choice should be this weekend, and we'll start with market leader George Coetzee. He's ranked 140th in the World, but don't let that put you off - that actually makes him the 4th highest ranked player in the event, which gives a pretty solid view of the quality (or lackthereof) within the field.
As a local man, he knows the course well, and won here in 2015, and was also runner up back in 2011. In fact, he grew up playing the course as a developing young player. He's also in decent nick, having finished 13th and 8th on his last two outings. At 10/1, we are getting 2/1 on him finishing in the top 8 for the places, which given the field strength, this has to be a bet -he's as short as 4/6 for a Top 10 with Ladbrokes (11/8 if you shop around), and no one goes longer than 5/2 about a Top 5 finish in that market.
Justin Walters is next on the hit list. Another local lad, he has twice posted top 10 finishes on the last two renewals - claiming 9th last season and 4th the year before. His last start on home soil also saw him claim a top ten finish at the Dimension a fortnight ago. His record in South African based European Tour events is also solid - a tied 3rd at the Joburg in 2016, fourth at the South African Open in the same year, and 4th here the same season again. He doesn't have a great deal to beat here, and he is capable of using previous course knowledge to mix it towards the top of the leaderboard. Looks a good bet at 40/1 which gives us 8/1 on a place here.
Next up is Peter Karmis - staying with our trend of looking at the Saffer lads, and he shared ninth place here with Justin Walters last season. Missed cuts in 2015 and 2016 preceded that, but he's also posted Top 20s in 2010 and 2011 at the course previously. He's been playing the Sunshine Tour this season in the most part, and finished 2nd at Cape Town last week so should be playing with some confidence. Whether he can step it up enough to win this one will come clear over the weekend, but at 50/1 we'll chuck a point e/w at him.
Finally, Hennie Otto completes a quartet of home-grown players we'll be cheering on as he tries to win at this course for a third time. Those previous wins were back in 2010 and 2007 of course, but he did post a 12th place here last season, so hasn't forgotten how to get round. Otto grew up less than an hour from the course, so will have played it plenty of times.
He's one of the highest quality players in the field, and his world ranking in the 500's is hidden by some difficult years carrying injuries. More recently though, he finished 12th in the SA Open and 13th at the Joburg. at 55/1 he completes our four to follow!
1pt e/w George Coetzee at 10/1 (8 places 1/5)
1pt e/w Justin Walters at 40/1 (8 places 1/5)
1pt e/w Peter Karmis at 50/1 (8 places 1/5)
1pt e/w Hennie Otto at 55/1 (8 places 1/5)