Premier League Darts
Michael van Gerwen v Simon Whitlock (around 7.10pm)
This should be a real cracker, and the bookmakers are probably over-rating MvG a touch in making him as short as 1/6 in a relatively short format encounter where the draw is always a possibility. We all know about just how good the Dutchman is, and it would be foolish to suggest he won’t be the dominant player, but having exited at the first hurdle in the UK Open last week to Jeffrey de Zwann (averaging just 96) there is a chance Simon Whitlock can run him close.
Starting in the Average markets, we can’t have Simon Whitlock offered at UO 95.5 in this one – he’s averaging a shade under 95 at the moment after four matches, but everyone gets a good boost factor when playing against the quick finishing MvG. In fact, going back to the start of the 2017 Premier League, 18 of MvG’s 21 opponents in this competition have passed that 95.5 line, and many won’t have been as proficient as Whitlock. It’s worth nothing that over half of those matches have seen his rivals average over 100. We’d have the line at least at 98.5 in this one, if not a smidge higher.
We’re also going to split stakes on this four ways to cover a variety of bases which could be overpriced. We expect MvG to be good enough to get the job done, but it might not be by a bit margin. We’re going to perm together three bets therefore to cover these. Firstly, the draw is available at 9/1 which simply has to be too long. We make it closer to 13/2 in this one on our model. We’ll also cover the7-4 correct score to MvG, who will throw first, so any win has a good chance of involving an odd number of legs. It’s widely available at 5/1, which looks at least a point too long. Finally, we’ll also try the handicap market, where Whitlock looks decent value with a +4.5 leg start at 4/5 with BetVictor.
6pts Whitlock to average over 95.5 at 5/6
1pt MvG to win 7-4 at 5/1 (General)
1pt Drawn Match at 9/1 (Betfair)
2pts Whitlock +4.5 on the handicap at 4/5 (Bet Victor)
Gerwyn Price v Raymond van Barneveld
A tough match to make out this one, with Price arguably better than his position at the very foot of the table suggest, and Barney struggling with his diabetes at the UK Open. It’s not clear whether he’ll be fully back on top form for Leeds, especially with plenty of travelling in between, and it looks worth backing Price at 5/2 in this one with a number of layers. If he wins, the 7-4 looks the most likely outcome again, and that’s on offer at 8/1 which also makes plenty of appeal, whilst we’ve also requested a cheeky #yourodds with William Hill which looks worth backing – getting Gerwyn Price to win, and winning checkout to be D20 at 12/1. Price is a double tops man every day of the week, and hits it with remarkable accuracy. We make the bet closer to 8/1 to it looks really good value.
1pt Gerwyn Price to win at 5/2 (General)
1pt Gerwyn Price to win 7-4 at 8/1 (General)
1pt Gerwyn Price to win and Double Tops winning double #YourOdds at 12/1 (Will Hill)
Peter Wright v Mensur Suljovic
Another prospective cracker here as World No.2 plays World No.4. Suljovic is probably the most underrated player on the circuit still despite being as high as fourth on the Order of Merit and he looks to have been again in this one, with prices as long as 11/4 about him winning the match. It’s true he hasn’t really got going yet in this competition, but neither has Wright played to his absolute potential, and a shock is certainly possible here. In three of his four matches so far, the Austrian has averaged above 102.5, so the line offered on him beating 97.5 looks generous with William Hill at even money.
1pt Suljovic to win at 11/4 (General)
1pt Suljovic to win 7-5 at 8/1 (General)
2.2pts Suljovic +2.5 handicap at 10/11 (BetVictor)
2pts Suljovic to average over 97.5 at evens (Will Hill)
Gary Anderson v Daryl Gurney
Anderson continued his fine form at the UK Open, and he looks to have put the injury problems he was having with his back behind him to produce some terrific darts. He’s already hit 17 180s in four matches, so should have the scoring power to stay with the equally prolific Gurney, and that could pile the pressure on the Northern Irishman. It’s hard to see too far past an Anderson win, but at the odds, we’ll have a small play on the draw at 4/1 which is probably a shade over the top.
1pt Match to be a draw at 4/1
Rob Cross v Michael Smith
Michael Smith tops the table after four venues, but his performances really haven’t suggested that should be the case if truth be told. After beating a below-par Anderson on the opening night (averaging 89.1), he then scrapped his way past Daryl Gurney with a single break and averaging 99.1. Week three saw Suljovic roll over – a match Smith won averaging 91.1, and then he was given an equally easy ride against Whitlock last time out – averaging just 87.3 in that one. Overall, he’s actually averaging lower than anyone else in the competition, so it’s quite a miracle he is where he is right now.
With Rob Cross settled into the tournament now with back-to-back wins, and a run to the semi-finals of the UK Open, he should be in fine mood to ensure he gives his chances a big boost in this one.
3pts Cross to win at 5/6 (General)
1pt Cross to win 7-4 at 5/1 (Will Hill)