Bahrain GP
Sebastian Vettel will start on pole on Sunday after pipping team-mate Kimi Raikkonen in qualifying, while Valtteri Bottas starts behind them. Lewis Hamilton has been demoted from 4th to 9th for a gearbox change, while Pierre Gasly probably claimed driver of the day for ending up 5th on the grid! Max Verstappen goes from 15th on the grid after an accident in qualifying.
Here's how they should line up if nothing else changes demotion-wise.
Provisional Bahrain GP grid
1. Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari 2. Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari 3. Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes 4. Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull 5. Pierre Gasly, Toro Rosso 6. Kevin Magnussen, Haas 7. Nico Hulkenberg, Renault 8. Esteban Ocon, Force India 9. Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes 10. Carlos Sainz, Renault 11. Brendon Hartley, Toro Rosso 12. Sergio Perez, Force India 13. Fernando Alonso, McLaren 14. Stoffel Vandoorne, McLaren 15. Max Verstappen, Red Bull 16. Romain Grosjean, Haas 17. Marcus Ericsson, Sauber 18. Sergey Sirotkin, Williams 19. Charles Leclerc, Sauber 20. Lance Stroll, Williams
So, where should we start for our value?
Lewis Hamilton should have a significant tactical advantage on his rivals after qualifying on the soft tyres in Q2 - that should ensure that once he cruises up behind Daniel Ricciardo that he can make hay through the pitstops. He should be going deeper into the race in his first stint, and should have the pace to clear anyone outside the top four fairly easily on a track where passing is much more straightforward than Australia, He's 5/4 to finish on the podium which looks acceptable here.
Max Verstappen is 5/6 to finish in the top six, and that could be a mistake given the Red Bull looks a clear second faster than it's nearest lower grid rival, so again we should see Max cut his way through the pack pretty effectively. It would be a surprise if he wasn't inside the top ten within 2-3 laps, and the 5/6 would begin to look very big indeed. He can also start on the soft tyres.
For a points finish, we're going to old favourite Esteban Ocon who did such a fine job last season. He starts 8th on the grid, but is the same price (more or less) as team mate Perez (12th) and Alonso (13th) whose McLaren team didn't understand their lack of pace. Ocon finished in the points in all but two races last season, and whilst this season's car is not of the same quality, he can be relied upon to wring the best out of it.
Finally, the Safety Car has only appeared here in three of the 13 races previously. Wide run off areas ensure few incidents occur, and there are plenty of opportunities to recover anyone who does experience troubles. We'd be something like 2/5 No Safety Car, and McLaren estimate in their race facts pack as 20% chance. It's an 8/11 shot that we don't see it with Hills, which is a great bet.
2pts Lewis Hamilton to finish on the Podium at 5/4 (Will Hill)
1pt Max Verstappen to finish in the Top 6 at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
1pt Esteban Ocon to finish in the points at evens (Betway)
3.3pts No Safety Car at 8/11 (Will Hill)