The Grand National
We hit three of the top five in the biggest race of the year last time around, and did so by following a few important trends. We’ll give you the run down on how these can be used to help us pick the winner in the 2018 renewal (or so we hope!)
The basics
First off, it’s important to understand what has changed in this race over the years. One trend you’re likely to hear about is how few winners carry 11 stone or more to victory. That was certainly true until 2009, but the rules changed that year to drop the top allocated weight by 2 lbs, and we immediately saw four winners in a row win with 11stone +
The fences have also been softened, meaning that form over the biggest fences is perhaps not as important as it once was.
Stamina
Perhaps the most important factor in finding a winner over the 4m 2f is proven stamina. The distance has been dropped from the original 4m 4f, but it remains the longest race on the calendar and is made extra hard by the 30 still significant fences to negotiate. So we need to find horses who have at least placed over a good trip.
Over the past five races, 57% of runners who have placed previously over 3m 4f have gone on to finish the race, 25% have placed and 6% have won. The 6% sounds low, but that’s actually 4 of the 5 winners over the past half-decade. In terms of those who have placed, that 25% strike rate actually means 72% of the places have been filled by just 36% of the runners!
Of those who have placed over a longest trip of 3m 2f to 3m 3f, 45% have finished, just 9% have placed, and just 2% have won. Looking down to those who have never placed at greater than 3m 1f, while 34% have got round, only 3% have placed and none have won. This suggests any horses which haven’t won over at least 3m 2f as a minimum should be struck off, and we should rate higher those who have won over the longer trips.
Key Trials
There are traditionally six key trial races for the Grand National, and it pays to look at the horses who have done well in these (and of course the Grand National itself). Our key trials are the Irish, Scottish and Welsh Nationals, the Becher Chase, the Ladbrokes Trophy and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Of the 72 horses who have finished in the Top 5 previously in one of those events, 24% have placed, and 6% have won. Compared to those who have not finished in the Top Five previously is stark – just 6% have placed and 2% won. It’s clearly important to consider this in our picks.
Combining the Key Trial and Stamina Trends actually shows, over the past five years, that 14 of the places were filled by just 41 horses who matched both criteria. That’s 56% of the placed horses from less than 21% of the runners. Hitting at least one of the trends would have produced 84% of the placed horses from just over half the runners.
Let’s rule out any that don’t match either trend! – put a line through the following:
Perfect Candidate, Walk in the Mill (r), Shantou Flyer, Warriors Tale, The Dutchman, Maggio, Buywise, Captain Redbeard, Carlingford Lough, Beeves, Tenor Nivernais, Virgilio, Pendra, Valseur Lido, Childrens List, Pleasant Company, Alpha Des Obeaux
Weight
Always a difficult one this – the best horses (often the ones you want to be on) carry the heaviest burdens. This is what makes the National such a competitive affair and ensures we come back year after year trying to find the winner. What we do know is that, statistically, being too badly handicapped makes it much harder to win. Over the past five years, only four of the 25 places have been filled by horses carrying more than 12lbs greater than the best-treated runner. That’s 16% of the places from a total of 21% of the runners. At the other end of the scale, 52% of places have been filled from just 44% of the runners who carried 5lbs or less over and above the best-treated runner. It’s marginal, but it’s worth bearing in mind.
Form
Winning in the run-up to the National isn’t essential, but having some sort of form certainly is. Since 1995 just a single winner has done so without having at least placed over jumps that season, and the majority of those have done so more than once.
Over the past five years, 84% of the places have been filled by runners who have previously placed over jumps that season, from just 73% of the runners (145 of the 198). 48% of those placed have already gained at least two places that season – with just 39% of runners meeting that criteria.
While winning form isn’t as important, it’s worth noting that those who have won twice or more than season have filled 20% of the places from just 11.5% of the runners.
Previous at the National
Having been over the fences before is a handy advantage. We looked at the last five years to evaluate all the runners who had previously attempted the National or not. Of those who had, we broke them into horses who have placed before, those who have finished but not placed, those who fell, and those who were pulled-up. The biggest thing we took from this was that of 36 returners who had previously finished the race, 8 placed. That’s 32% of the places from just 18% of the runners. A worthy trend for sure. Typically, these are horses who go again off a similar rating, but it’s certainly one to feed into our Excel spreads
Our Picks
Ok, let's cut to the chase. After applying and scoring all the trends (we must surely allow the odd trend to be broken if a runner is a great match everywhere else) and that's given us a final five we are going to chuck our darts at. 188Bet offer 8 places this year, but not the most competitive prices, so we'll be shopping around a little.
Our five versus the field are:
1pt ew Houblon des Obeaux at 33/1 - Sky Bet 6 places 1/5
1pt ew Regal Encore at 28/1 - Sky Bet 6 places 1/5
1pt ew Vieux Lion Rouge at 25/1 - 188bet 8 places 1/5
1pt ew Gas Line Boy at 25/1 - 188bet 8 places 1/5
1pt ew Final Nudge at 40/1 - 6 places 1/5