Championship - Best Bets
It's no exaggeration to say there are some enormous matches in the Championship this weekend. Middlesbrough host Millwall in a game which will surely see the winners into the play-offs and the losers miss out, while Preston and Brentford can keep alive fading hopes of promotion if they can win their matches and results go their way elsewhere.
Perhaps the biggest game of all though is at the other end, where Burton entertain Bolton. A win for the hosts would see leapfrog Bolton, and move out of the relegation zone potentially, while a Bolton win would confirm Burton as down. The home side should therefore be roared on and its arguable that they will feel more strongly the importance of this one.
Given that the Trotters have won just once of the road all season, Burton have to fancy their chances, and Nigel Clough's side have now won back-to-back league games for only the second time all season, with wins over Derby and Sunderland. Bolton have lost four of the last five without finding the net, and a continuation of that trend would be disaterous. It's easy to envisage though, and as a result Burton go on our staking plan for the first time all season!
2pts Burton to beat Bolton at 6/4
QPR have been decent enough at home this season, and have delivered us a few winners (as well as a few losers) over the course of the season. They are available at 17/10 to beat Birmingham this week, and that appeals in our eyes. Their recent home record reads LWWWDLWW.
The market is taking account of Birmingham's upturn in results recently, with four wins in their last seven, but three of those have come at St Andrews, and three have come against opponents of questionable quality. Their last 8 away from home reads LLWLLLLW, so hardly the stuff of world beaters.
Both sides are now effectively safe from the drop due to a combination of points, goal difference and other teams playing each other, so home advantage could be more important than usual in this one.
1pt QPR to beat Birmingham at 17/10
Finally, Aston Villa are quietly finishing the season strongly, and continuing those results will be key to Steve Bruce's side entering the playoffs with momentum. It's going to be crucial this season with sides like Fulham, Boro and Millwall all hitting form at just the right time. This week's opponents are Derby, and given automatic promotion is still a slim possibility for Villa, we shouldn't expect them to rest anyone ahead of the play-offs.
With a 14-6-2 home record this season, Villa have been pretty much the most reliable side in the division in front of their own fans, and they look well capable of bringing Derby back down to earth following their Cardiff heroics in midweek.
2.2pts Aston Villa to beat Derby at 10/11