Southampton v Bournemouth
We've talked a lot about loss aversion syndrome in recent weeks, so wont bore you all with that again, except to say that the physcology could be evident at St Mary's this afternoon when Southampton take on local rivals Bournemouth.
The theory is mostly targetted at Southampton's perspective on this fixture, which really is a must-not-lose. A draw won't see them down, but it would see them fight another day, while a defeat would leave them really up against it - at least four points adrift, and with the knowledge that Swansea still have Southampton and Stoke to play.
If they are trailing in this match, they really will be throwing the proverbial kitchen sink at Bournmouth, while you can equally see them being more than a little nervous defending a slender lead - they could easily sit back and end up conceded from the very position they are looking to protect. No-one will want to be seen to have overcommitted in attack, so they will surely be influenced should they find themselves in that position.
Add in that the Saints have drawn six of their 10 home Premier League matches against sides outside the top eight, and you see quite a pattern emerge. That stat for Bournemouth is the similar- six of their 10 against tops in the bottom 12 have ended up all square
2.5pts Draw at 16/5 (Bet365 or BetFred)
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