Wimbledon Day 1 (Mon) - Mens
Plenty of picks on the first day of Wimbledon with 32 matches to get through, so we’ll fire straight into it.
Karlovic v Youzhny
Ivo Karlovic meets Mikhail Youzhny in the opening round, and service breaks look likely to be few and far between. Karlovic should win something in the region of 72-73% of service points, which should make him close to unbreakable, while his receiving ability (or lackthereof) is well known.
Of his last 14 matches on quick courts against Top 100 players, he has seen eight first sets go to tie breaks, and a total of 20 sets of a total of 33. This match is quoted at just odds against for a first set breaker, which is simply too long. It should be a good deal shorter.
Over the longer period and just looking at Grass matches, Karlovic has seen a 1st set breaker in 25 of his last 36 matches. I’d be closer to 8/15 about a first set breaker.
4pts Tie Break in 1st Set at 11/10 with Paddy Power
Millman v Travaglia
John Millman is a strong favourite when the Australian World No.62 meets Italian Stefano Travaglia on Monday – ranked 138th in the world.
Neither are renowned grass court players, but the base stats for the past couple of seasons suggest Millman might be pretty weak and a potential upset could be on the cards. His last four matches on grass against Top 100 players have seen him win just 51% of service points, and less than 30% of receiving points. That’s about as bad as it can get, and we’ll take a small bet on Travaglia as a result – the Italian would typically expect significantly stronger values than those and appeals at 19/10 with Marathon Bet.
1pt Travaglia to beat Millman at 19/10
Fabbiano v Bhambri
Thomas Fabbiano is next on the shortlist. The Italian has always enjoyed the quicker courts and reached the final in Nottingham last season, beating a certain Yuki Bhambri along the way. The pair face off again 12 months later, with the Indian not well fancied in this. He’s almost exclusively a hard court player, and tends to avoid straying onto anything faster or slower, so could reasonably be classified as a one trick pony.
While Fabbiano won the last time these two met, he’s also won two other matches between the pair – both on hard courts, with one in 2016 and another in 2013. The market is beginning to shorten up on the Italian for this one, but there is enough juice left in the 8/13 quotes to make him worth backing.
1.95pts Fabbiano to beat Bhambri at 8/13
Recommended Bets
4pts Tie Break in Match at 11/10 with Paddy Power
1pt Travaglia to beat Millman at 19/10
1.95pts Fabbiano to beat Bhambri at 8/13