England v Colombia
Right. When this games kicks off, I'll be in the pub, wearing an England shirt and cheering on the boys just like all of you. As passionate and hopeful as the next man. But as a punter, I can't have my hard earned money down on the boys at prices only slightly above even money to win the match in 90 minutes or 1/2 to qualify.
England were professional throughout the group stages - beating Tunisia (in what should have been a more commanding scoreline) and then thrashing Panama. We can only ignore the Belgium match given all the scenarios around it, and there isn't a lot not to like about them quite honestly. But are they world beaters yet? No, any side from the bottom half could luck their way to the final now.
Colombia are ranked just two places below England in the World Elo ratings - 1944 to 1939 pts - which essentially rates them dead level on a netural venue.
They lost the opening group match against Japan, but played that with just ten men for the entire match after a 3rd minute red card, and then recovered with a terrific 3-0 thrashing of Poland when the chips were down. In the final match they held their nerve to beat Senegal and ended up topping the group.
They qualified for the World Cup just a point behind Argentina and ahead of Peru, and despite the struggles of Argentina in this tournament, would England really be close to odds on to beat them in 90 minutes? Would we even be favourites for the match? The answers to both are probably no.
Based on all these facts, and that Colombia included a win over France and draws with Brazil and Spain in their 12 months leading up to the World Cup, so they have tested themselves against some of the best.
1pt Colombia to beat England at 16/5 (BoyleSports)
1pt Colombia to Qualify at 6/4 (General)