Wimbledon Day 2 (Mens)
Dominic Thiem is up to No.7 in the world these days, but it could count for little when he takes on experienced campaigner Marco Baghdatis on Tuesday.
Thiem has enjoyed a tremendous season thus far, reaching the French Open Final, winning ATP Lyon and reaching the final in Madrid, but all that has happened on clay, and he’s yet to prove he has learnt to adapt his style to the faster courts. He’s won 75% of his career clay matches, but just 57% on hard courts and 55% on grass. He would surely have liked to go deeper into the Gerry Weber Open than a second round exit, and must be considered vulnerable in this one.
Baghdatis comes into this having lost six on the spin, but he has built much of his previous successes on grass and indoors, and his records on Indoor hard courts, carpet and grass stand up well. We’ll back the Cypriot on the +7 games handicap with Bet365 at even money.
1pt Baghdatis +7 games to beat Thiem at evens
Another underdog who could have a chance of an upset on Tuesday is Marius Copil – the Romania World No.95. He’s got a decent grass court record (29-19), and have also achieved significant success indoors (141-76).
While Robin Haase is the better known of the men, and is just inside the Top 50 (ranked 44th), he has achieved most of his success on the slower clay courts. On Grass he is just 27-36, and indoors is 118-79.
Notably, the pair met in Sofia in February, and Copil won that encounter 7-6 6-4, but won 75pts to just 55pts from Haase – so arguably an easier match than the score suggests.
It stands up just as well if we only look at faster courts against Top 100 players more recently as well – Haase having a 5-8 Grass, and 8-15 record indoors, compared to Copil, who is 3-6 on Grass and 12-12 indoors.
This should be a close match by our ratings, so back the 8/5 available on Copil is the advice in this one.
2pts Copil to beat Haase at 7/4 (Betway)
Feliciano Lopez is a seasoned and proven grass court competitor. The Spaniard has twice won the Eastbourne Internationa (2013 and 2015), and is a former Queens Club champion (2017), while he has also lost finals in the Stuttgart Open (2017) and at Queens (2014). He’s also made the quarter-finals here three times in the past, although in truth he would surely consider that an under-performance against his ability on the surface.
He takes on Federico Delbonis in the 1st round, and that’s a great draw for the Spaniard. Delbonis has never won a match on grass (0-7) and is a clay courter through and through. He’s only here for the appearance money. Over those seven matches, he’s played 19 sets of tennis, and won just two – both against another clay courter in the form of Fabio Fognini.
This should be as easy as it gets for Lopez, and the 17/20 available with William Hill is unlikely to last until Tuesday morning. It should be nearer 4/7.
Jack Sock – ranked 15th in the World – takes on a man ranked 65 places behind him, who is pretty new to grass, so it is a surprise to see the American available at 4/5 with a host of firms.
His rival is up and coming Matteo Berrettini, but the Italian had played just twice on grass before this month and although a 4-4 record would imply he has adjusted quickly, in truth, two of those wins came against players outside the top 300, and another against a junior in 2014.
So Sock’s experience on the courts should serve him well, as should his overall 81% hold rate over the past 52 weeks against Top 100 players. A good service game is far more important than breaking your opponents once you get to Wimbledon.
1pt Jack Sock to beat Matteo Berrettini at 4/5
Belgium player David Goffin has reached the Top 10 in the world courtesy of an excellent all-round game, but its definitely true to say his best performances have come on clay and the slower hard courts. His is 176-79 on clay during his career, but just 18-18 on grass and could be threatened by a Matthew Ebden who is playing very well indeed right now.
The Australian is all about the quicker surfaces and will be hoping it gives him a chance to get some revenge on a man who boast a 3-1 head to head advantage over him.
Warm up has been superb for Ebden this season – having qualified for Surbiton, he reached the semi-finals, before going the same at Hertogenbosch in the middle of June. He then followed that up by running Roger Federer close in the quarter finals of the Gerry Weber Open and should feel ready for a big week at SW19. Overall he has an 83-40 grass record, and was a runner-up in the US Tennis Championship last season (losing to John Isner). At nearly 2/1, Ebden has to be backed in this one.
2pts Ebden to beat Goffin at 19/10 (General)