Wimbledon Day 3
After a fair few outsiders in the opening round, we are switching to side with the favourites in the second round – starting with Adrian Mannarino as he faces American Ryan Harrison.
Frenchman Mannarino has a 2-1 head to head advantage over Harrison, although the most recent meeting did fall the way of the American in the US Open. The super quick courts at Wimbledon will play more like the indoor courts in Knoxville however – the scene of a Mannarino win between the men.
Mannarino is ranked 26th in the World, compared to Harrison who is 59th, and while Mannarino is a better 25th on grass (200pts from five events), Harrison is rated just 137th in the grass rankings (15 pts from four tournaments).
The Frenchman has twice reached the fourth round, and has a 10-7 record here at SW19 over the years – his best record in any of the Slams. Harrison is yet to get past the second round here, and has a 3-5 Wimbledon record.
On the quicker courts, Mannarino is 54-36 on grass and 77-60 indoors over the past eight years. Looking only at matches against Top 100 players, and they regress to 20-20 (grass) and 22-25 indoors. Harrison by contrast is 29-35 on grass and 51-36 indoors, and 8-16 on grass and 11-14 indoors.
Finally we have the recent form. In winning his 1st round match, Ryan Harrison halted a five match losing run, stretching back to the Rome Master in early May, while Mannarino comes here following a final appearance on the Antalya grass, having beaten Gael Monfils among others.
All things considered the Frenchman should win this one with something to spare, and the 19/20 on him winning (-1.5 sets) looks the bet in this one.
2pts Mannarino -1.5 Sets to beat Harrison at 19/20
Only two places split Daniil Medvedev and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the ATP Tour rankings, but the Russian is the more confident player in the quick conditions, with the more experience Garcia-Lopez spending most of his career avoiding the slicker conditions.
Since turning pro, Garcia Lopez has made the main draw at Wimbledon 12 times, winning just seven matches and only progressing beyond the 2nd round once. He’s played just 62 of his 935 career matches on grass!
Medvedev is a full 13 years behind Garcia Lopez in his career, but has already won almost as many grass matches, and has a 23-12 record on the surface so far. That included beating Stan Wawrinka last season. He impressed in the 7-6 6-2 6-2 demolition of Borna Coric, winning 72% of service points and 40% of receiving points.
The surface should give Medvedev the advantage here, and odds of 1/2 look fair enough on the Russian, while a small bet on him on the (-3.5 games) market also seems a sensible ploy at 4/5
2pts Medvedev to beat Garcia-Lopez at 1/2
2pts Medvedev (-3.5 Games) at 4/5
Finally, Milos Raonic has a quarter-final, semi-final and runner-up medal in his collection from Wimbledon over the past four seasons, and is a formidable contender on the courts here. He would surely have an even better record were it not for a number of matches against Murray (2016 Final) and Federer (2014, 2017) here over the years.
When playing matches he *should* win, Raonic has been pretty trustworthy. He’s played 15 matches as a 1/5 favourite or shorter, winning 12 of those in straight sets, and the other three 3-1 or 3-2. That tendency to dominate his opponents
Raonic is likely to go off around 1.16 in this one. John Millman appears to have an ok grass record at first glance (27-20), but the majority of those have been played in challenger events, so it’s not as good as it might suggest, and his 3-6 record over the past three years on grass adds further support – winning just 57% of points on service in those matches. While he has decent return data, its unlikely to help him against the powerful Raonic serve.
Back the 21/20 on a 3-0 is the advice in this one.
2pts Raonic to win 3-0 against Millman at 21/20 (William Hill)
2pts Raonic (-5.5 games) at 9/10 (Marathon)