England v Croatia
It's really coming home isn't it??? Even StattoBets are starting to believe. But we're here to deliver an objective view of the game, and the value as we see it lays in a tight match, and the odds on England winning this in regular time look a touch short at just 5/4.
All the rhetoric has been about Croatia struggling after two matches which have gone the distance. It's undoubtedly a factor, but have a look back through the past few major tournaments, and they are littered with teams suceeding against opponents who have played 30 minutes fewer in the round before. In fact the stats would suggest quite the opposite. Regardless, the sample sizes are small, but there isn't a great deal of evidence to suggest it will make a big impact.
Croatia have some fabulous players amongst their number, and this could really be a battle between individuals and a team, and we're hoping England have nailed that. We've got Kane of course, but behind him we have a cohesive unit, functioning really well.
Well enough to be 5/4 favourites on a neutral ground? I'm not so sure, and I'd rather be with the draw at 11/5 in this.
Looking back at the last 19 matches played at the semi-final or final stage of World Cups and European Championships, an incredible 10 have finished with a single goal or no goals, and six have ended goalless.
With that in mind, we'll also chuck an arrow at 0-0 and Under 1.5 Goals at 7/1 and 8/5 respectively.
1pt England v Croatia to be a draw at 11/5
1pt Engand v Croatia 0-0
2pts Under 1.5 Goals at 8/5