League Two Antepost Update
So the opening six rounds are done, and we don’t have any absolute runaway leaders in the early shot data, but there are definitely a few teams who are performing better or worse than the bookmakers outright appraisals who could be worth adding into our antepost picks at this point.
Let’s start with Forest Green. Away from the headlines about their Vegan diet and the optimistic grey stars on their shirt, the side have been quietly going about a very good start to the season. 10 goals scored to just five conceded in the league and unbeaten in eight – handily including being knocked out of the EFL Cup by Wycombe on penalties.
Having achieved a 63% shot ratio (84-50), and 60% in terms of shots on target (26-17) they look in great nick, and might reasonably figure that their 7th place in the table is perhaps a little lower than they deserve. Nevertheless, the bookmakers don’t agree, and you can get 9/1 about them being promoted this season or 3/1 about them finishing in the Top 7.
The other side I like at this point are Newport, who continue to build under Michael Flynn. The Exiles already have 13 points on the board, which means, based on 72pts usually being enough for a Top 7 finish in this division, they could now average 1.5 pts per game and still make the play-offs. Their early shot data supports that task – 59% of shots (79-54) and 60% on target (29-19) – and they are a fair bet at 9/4 to finish inside the top 7 as well.
At the other end, or bets on Cheltenham finishing in trouble are looking good, although they have already changed managers with Russell Milton coming in. Our early season ratings suggest he has inherited the worst side in the division though, so we remain happy at the tasty prices we took.
It could be worth adding Grimsby to the portfolio at that end of the table – the Mariners have collected just five points from six matches under Michael Jolley this season, and have been comfortably beaten on a couple of outings already this season. 18 shots on target is the second lowest in the division, and they have allowed a divisional worst 91 shots against overall. You can get 9/1 about them finishing in the bottom two, and that has to have some mileage in it in my eyes.
Bets:
1pt Forest Green to finish in the Top 7 at 3/1
1pt Newport County to finish in the Top 7 at 9/4
1pt Grimsby to be relegated at 9/1