League One
Regular readers will know all about our approach on shot data, and we’ll kick off with a word of warning for others following the same process this week. Our model has chucked out Southend as a very strong bet this week when they face pace setters Peterborough, but it’s actually one we’re going to advise you to swerve based on the team news here.
Peterborough are definitely one to keep an eye on over the coming weeks, as there will almost certainly be chances to oppose them at value prices. Despite topping the table, their shot data is woeful – 63 shots versus 112 against, and 32 on-target versus 29 against isn’t the stuff of league winners. With a -28 corner difference as well we can reasonably assume they are very much out-of-position at this point in the campaign and should be expected to regress backwards over the coming weeks.
Southend were obviously one of the sides we called out as having a great chance this season – leading our antepost picks in the section. They have started better in terms of performances than their league position might suggest, but this week they look worth avoiding, with around 10 players likely to miss out through a variety of injuries, suspensions or international call-ups.
Blackpool v Bradford
Blackpool have been a club in turmoil for a long time, but they should be backed to get maximum points when they face Bradford on Saturday. They look capable of a top-half finish this time around on the basis of the opening exchanges, while Braford are 23rd in the shot-based tables we produce, having mustered just 51 shots on goal in the opening six matches (the league average is 75) at the expense of 93 against. That is a league low in terms of shots, and it’s the same story on shots-on-target, where they have just 19 over six games.
Bradford have reacted to a poor start to the season with the appointment of David Hopkin from Livingston. He’s done well there, so comes here with a good reputation but this game may come too quickly for him to make significant improvements.
1pt Blackpool to beat Bradford at evens