Scottish Round Up
Starting in the Championship, Inverness CT host Queen of the South, and it’s possible the away side might give a better account of themselves than the market suggests – currently pricing the visitors at 13/5 to win the match.
Queen of the South are comfortably topping most of the performance metrics despite a relatively modest mid-table position in the actual table – they have a healthy 68% shot ratio, 74% Shot on target ratio, and have a 76-36 total shot dominance advantage. They have only given up 12 shots on target to their opposition in six matches, so look like they know what they are doing at both ends of the pitch this season.
Inverness are riding high – 2nd in the table – this season, and although their performance data is strong, it isn’t in the same league as Queen of the South. They have managed an ordinary 51% shot ration, and 58% shot on target ratio, and have scored just nine goals in six matches, so are hardly prolific.
1pt Queen of the South to beat Inverness at 13/5
In League One, Arbroath are the standout team this campaign, and top the table completely on merit. They have a +12 goal different after seven games – scoring 18 goals already. They have averaged 7.4 corners per match (won), 14.3 shots and 6.6 shots on target per match. With over 60% shot ratio they really do look like champions in the making this season and should be trusted to beat Airdrie this weekend.
While their opponents are themselves third in the table, thinks look much bleaker under the surface and you can point to a number of games where points have been collected in games which could have gone another way. They certainly rode their luck when beating Stenhousemuir, and were probably fortunate to win at Montrose on the opening day of the season. This should be a comfortable home win for the Red Lichties.
1pt Arbroath to beat Airdrie at 8/11
Our ratings make Stranraer comfortably the weakest side in the division, and they have already allowed 101 shots against them this season after just seven games. Under usual conditions, you would expect them to have shipped somewhere in the region of 15 games. That they have a goals for/against total of 6-8 is almost certainly more down to luck than judgement. It’s also worth noting that aside from their league performances, they have also lost four of their five cup matches this season and have failed to score in their last three away matches.
They travel to Brechin this weekend who are available at odds-against prices, and look an altogether more capable outfit on all levels. Whilst a 67-61 shot count isn’t all that amazing, it’s a good deal better than Stranraer (59-101) and they have a 52% shot ratio. The home side look well overpriced in this one and should perhaps be closer to odds-on than the 117/100 currently available with Marathon.
2pts Brechin to beat Stranraer at 117/100
Second in the table is nothing more than Peterhead deserve after an excellent season so far. Five wins from their opening seven games leaves them with 16 points on the board and you only have to look at their shot data to confirm their quality this season. They have won the shot-count in every single game so far – 16-4 v Berwick, 9-3 at Cowdenbeath, 8-7 v Edinburgh, 18-10 at Stirling, 15-5 v Clyde, 18-6 at Albion Rovers and 10-5 against Queens Park. Over the course of the season they are 94-40 ahead on that metric, and 43-13 when it comes to on-target efforts. In short, they are dominating.
Annan are just three points behind, but their supporting evidence is rather less convincing. They have scored 13 and conceded just 8, so goals alone probably warrants their decent position, but they have converted an unsustainable level of efforts – scoring a goal for every 4.3 shots. They have won the shot count in just two of their seven matches and have a -19 corner difference for the season. Peterhead are a very strong selection this week.
3pts Peterhead to beat Annan Athletic at 17/20
Our final bet in Scotland comes in the Elgin v Queens Park match, and there is a strong case to be made that Queens Park should be shorter than the 2/1 available. They have lost their last two, but over the duration of the season they have been performing at a reasonable level – only Peterhead, Edinburgh City and Stirling have beaten them in the shot count. They have managed 67 shots on goal this season compared to 55 against, and better shot conversion could have seen them pick up another point or two.
Elgin are certainly nothing special – 62 shots and 78 against so far, and they have an unimpressive 44% shot ratio over the duration of the season (Queens Park is 55% for comparison). At home, they have scored just twice in five matches this season, conceding 11 times.
1pt Queens Park to beat Elgin at 2/1