Peterborough v Blackpool
We've got a truly intriguing battle in this one. On one hand, you have Peterborough - top of the table on 22 points from nine matches, and boasting an impressive +13 goal difference.
On the other, you have a Peterborough side who are massively riding their luck this season with an off-the-scale shot conversion proportion which is simply unsustainable, and a heap of matches where they have been second best but emerged with all three points.
We're inclined, under such circumstances, to expect a regression to more normal levels of performance, and those suggest that Blackpool might well be the better of these two sides despite trailing Posh by eight points already.
Peterborough have a 96-154 shot ratio this season (38%) and 47-49 on target (49%). Those numbers would typically have seen them score 11-12 goals under usual scenarios. They have scored twice that (24). It might reasonably have seen them concede something in the order of 15-16 - they have actually conceded 11.
Blackpool on the other hand are showing shot metrics of 118-109 and 40-32 on target. With those numbers we might reaosnably expect their goal difference to read something like 12-11 - above average then. and not disimiliar from their 8-5,in terms of the points it might have yielded. They have taken, on average, 16.3 shots per goal this season, which will certainly see them score more than they currently have.
At 12/5 with Bet365, Blackpool look worth a small bet this weekend in our eyes.
1pt Blackpool to beat Peterborough at 12/5