World Champs - Day 4 (Afternoon)
Plenty of value to get stuck into after a terrific Saturday of bets, so without further ado we'll fire straight into the Garbiel Clemens v Aden Kirk match.
Kirk could well be a little out of his depth at this level - in much the same way Craig Ross on Saturday, and we reckon Clemens is value to win this one 3-0 at 3/1. From a sample of over 250 legs, Kirk has only won a little over 10% of thrown legs inside 15 darts, and that's just not going to be good enough at this level. There is something like 1.5-2.0 darts per leg between the pair, and that might not sound much, but it's a country mile at this sort of elite level.
With the match so likely to be won by Clemens, the Double 16 looks interesting - Clemens wins close to 40% of his legs on 32, so odds of of 7/2 on that eventuality look well worth backing. Coral's also do a special on Clemens winning the match on D16 or D8 at 3/1, and we make that a good deal shorter.
2pts Clemens to win 3-0 at 3/1 (General)
2pts Match Winning Double to be D16 at 7/2 (Ladbrokes)
1pt Clemens to win the Match on D16 or D8 at 3/1 (Coral)
Next up we have William O'Connor against Yordi Meeuwisse. The bookies definitely have it right in making O'Connor their 4/7. but they may have gone too far in making Yordi a strong favourite in the 180s market.
Our data, taken from around 120 legs for Yordi and 180 for O'Connor has relatively little betwen them - around 0.22 per leg for the Dutchman and 0.25 per leg for the Irish man.
That means the 17/10 on O'Connor hitting the most 180s represents a slice of value - we'd be closer to 11/8 on balance.
1pt O'Connor most 180s at 17/10 (Marathon)
It's a similar battle plan for Brendan Dolan v Yuanjun Liu. Neither will be filling up the maximum bed frequently - we expect a combined effort of around 0.20 180s per leg which is very low for this level - perhaps split around 0.11-0.12 for Dolan and 0.09 for Liu.
With just low totals, one or two could easily win that battle for either player - especially with a short match predicted. Liu is a 9/2 shot to hit the most 180s which is too long in this one.
Under 3.5 180s looks decent value as well at even money with William Hill or Spreadex.
1pt Liu to hit most 180s at 9/2 (Betfair)
1pt Under 3.5 180s at 6/5(Hills)
Closing out the afternoon session is Dave Chisnall v Josh Payne. The 1st round qualifier will have to improve on his Saturday efforts significantly to get close to Chisnall, who should blow him away with his scoring power. Betfair SportsBook offer 5/2 about the 3-0 whitewash, and that looks value about a player who wins inside 15 darts in roughly 42% of his legs - Payne will manage nearer the 28% mark on a usual night.
1pt Chisnall to win 3-0 at 5/2 (Betfair)