World Champs - Day 7- Afternoon (Wed)
Nathan Aspinall meets Geert Nentjes on Wednesday afternoon, and he won't have been hugely pleased when he saw the draw. Nentjes is probably among the best of the international qualifiers, and given he is still just 20, he has plenty of opportunity to continue improving.
Could an upset be on the cards then? Well it's definitely possible, but with just 2/1 available on Nentjes, there probably isn't quite enough juice in the price for him to warrant a bet.
Instead, it could be worth backing the match to be won on Double Top - a 3/1 with Betfred. Aspinall regularly tees up tops, and he has an incredible record on it - winning more than 40% of his winning legs on it. Sounds like value to me.
It could be worth supporting the Dutch underdog in the 180s market as well. Our data (which is proving to be pretty decent this year so far) suggests there won't be much in it between the pair - they should both be in and around the 0.21 180s per leg in this one. Should Nentjes be around 2/1 to fire in the most? Looks more like an 11/8 on my model.
2pts Nentjes to hit most 180s at 2/1 (Betfair)
1pt Match Winning Double to be D20 at 3/1 (Betfred)
Everyone knows that you should always back people called Noel when it gets close to Christmas - just think back to that Noel Whelan opener for Coventry against Man Utd in 1997 a day or so after Christmas!
Well this years candidate is Noel Malicdem who should be able to threaten Jeffrey de Graaf. Whilst I can't put my hand on my heart and tell you I have ever seen Malicdem play. Nor can I tell you what he looks like. I can however, have an educated guess about how good his is at throwing arrows, and his data suggests he is a capable player.
de Graaf is probably one of the weakest of the Pro Tour crop of players, so is certainly beatable. He finishes fewer than 20% of his legs with the darts inside 15 darts which means he is more breakable than many and he isnt a particularly big scorer generally.
In terms of the 180s, I'm expecting de Graaf to outscore Malicdem, but perhaps not by much - he looks to be about 0.05 180s per leg better, which means Malicdem is value at 13/5 to out-max him. No certainty, but this game is all about the value.
1pt Malicdem to beat de Graaf at 11/4 (General)
1pt Malicdem most 180s at 5/2 (General)
Finally on Wednesday afternoon, Brendan Dolan is worth adding into our stable of outsiders at 3/1. The Irishman takes on Joe Cullen and he scored reasonably well in his opening match - enough to suggest that he could have his chances if he can sharpen up his finishing. He only took out nine of his 28 darts at double against Yuanjun Liu, but still dispatched him 9-1 on legs won.
Cullen is the better player of course, but they are certainly close enough that an upset it possible - particularly in set-play and I'm not convinced the tasty prices are fully representative in this one. Both men are pretty keen on D16 as a finish route, brining D16 and D4 into play for Green Finishes. It could be worth backing the first leg to be finished on Green at 2/1 with Betway as a result.
1pt Dolan to beat Cullen at 3/1 (General)
1pt 1st Leg CO to be Green at 2/1 (Betway)