World Champs - Day 7 - Evening (Wed)

William O'Connor is a tough second round opponent for James Wilson, regardless of the way he made hard work of Yordi Meeuwisse in the opening round.

Take a look back to the European Match Play for instance, where O'Connor beat Rob Cross, Kim Huybrechts and Mensur Suljovic among others on his way to the final. Over the past 12 months in fact, there is very little to split the players in the data, and a tight match looks certain given this is a sets-format. It could go either way. Plenty of firms are 7/4 and that looks too big in my view.

I'd have been inclined to back the William O'Conner most 180s in this one too at 11/4 (and may yet talk myself into it), but he managed a net total of zero in the opening round, and I'm not sure I'm ready to be stung on that again. The long term trends do suggest it's a shade over the odds at 11/4.

2pts William O Connor to beat James Wilison at 7/4 (General)

Next up is Simon Whitlock v Ryan Joyce - a match which Whitlock should win, but is by no means sure to. He's 1/3 and I'd prefer to be with Joyce in that market but will resist a bet there.

Instead, the trends point to the 8/11 about Whitlock getting the first 180 as the value play. Whitlock averages around 0.28 per leg, while Joyce would normally be around the 0.14 mark - so we might expect two Whitlock 180s for every one that Joyce gets.

With that in mind I wouldn't want to be laying much longer than 8/15 or 4/7 about Whitlock to get the first of the match, but a couple of firms go 8/11 which feels like value. Joyce did hit three in 12 legs in the first round, but that is more likely an over performance than anything to worry about.

2.2pts Whitlock to hit the 1st 180 at 8/11

Finally we have James Wade v Seigo Asada, and although there isn't much to be had in the match winner or 180s markets, it could be worth supporting one of William Hill's special markets. They offer 8/11 that both the first and last 180s of the match are secured on a "Red" finish. A bit random I know, but our data for these two suggests than any given leg should finish on red around 85% of the time. That's more liek a 4/11 shot then. For the 8/11 to be right, our 85% would need to be adjusted to around 75%.

2.2pts 1st and Last Legs Won on Red at 8/11 (Hill)