World Champs - Day 8 - Thursday Afternoon
Jermaine Wattimena v Michael Barnard
There isn't as much between these two as the odds make out. Wattimena is a 4/9 shot, which Barnard can be backed at 2/1. There is hardly anything to pick between the pair - they both have an average winning leg of mid 16's, and would each finish a leg with the darts inside five visits around 20% of the time. Fine margins may separate these two here, and triple your money prices are definitely too long long on Barnard here.
2pts Barnard to beat Wattimena at 2/1 (General)
Alan Norris v Steve Lennon
Another match where the bookies are falling firmly into the Steve Lennon camp - making him their 8/15 favourite on the early shows. Our data again makes this a complete pick-em match, and I wouldn't be surprised with any result. The pair met three times in 2017, with each of the matches going 6-5 one way of the other. Lennon holds the edge 17-16 in total legs over the three meetings!
I have a feeling Lennon is too short based on an easy 1st round won - 3-0 against a sub-standard oppoonent at this level, and Lennon only hit 29% of his double shots in that match which says it all really.
If Norris does win, it may very well be on D20 or D10, so keep that in mind for your specials closer to the day. The 180 markets arent out at time of writing, but I'd expect Norris to be slight favourite in the most 180s market. Anything bigger than around 6/5 would be worth a bet on Norris.
2pts Norris to beat Lennon at 7/4 (SportingBet)
Stephen Bunting v Luke Humphries
Bunting is a fair favourite in this one, and the angle has to be the 180s. Bunting should be in for about 0.25-0.26 per leg typically, while Humphries is a touch lower - around 0.20-0.21 on average. That makes Bunting favourite, but I'm not sure he should be as short as 8/13 as he is in some places - especially given Humphries smacked in five in just 10 legs in the opening round. A similar performance would surely see him card the most in the match, and he's worth a small bet at 11/5 with Paddy Power in my view.
1pt Humphries most 180s at 11/5 (PaddyPower/Betfair)
Steve Beaton v Chris Dobey
Finally, the Bronzed Adonis himself takes the stage, but Chris Dobey is the one to be with in this one at 4/5. He's marginally ahead of pretty every metric we look at when pricing up leg wins, and these players are heading in opposite directions in the game.
Dobey finished the season in great nick and should relish his chance to take out a big name in Beaton. We'd be a couple of ticks shorter than the 4/5 available with Ladbrokes.
1pt Dobey to beat Beaton at 4/5 (Ladbrokes)