World Champs - Day 8 - Thursday Evening
Rowby-John Rodriguez v Cristo Reyes
A nice opportunity presents itself for one of these two to reach the the third round - a real pay day for either of them - pretty much doubling their annual earnings in the sport in 2018.
He may look about 11 yeas old, but Rowby-John Rodriguez has actually been playing on tour for five years now, and this is his fourth appearance at the World Championships.
We fancy 24-year-old Rodriguez marginally, but not enough to warrant a bet, but the 180s could be worth a little dabble, with the Austrian a marginal favourite on our stats, but considerable outsider in the bookies markets. He usually averages around 0.25 180s per leg - and hit four in 18 legs in the last round, while Reyes is often marginally below that rate - closer to 0.23 per leg.
1pt Rodriguez to hit most 180s at 2/1 (Betfair)
Ted Evetts v Adrian Lewis
It's becoming a bit of a habit in this tournament for us - backing outsiders in the 180s match bets, and this match is no different.
Adrian Lewis is a shadow of the player he once was - he hasn't been past the Last 16 of a ranking event this season - in fact we've seen just a single semi-final past that stage since the 2016 World Matchplay. Was the 2016 World Darts Championship the last time we were to see Lewis at the pinnacle of the game? It's quite possible. He's posted a hundred average in just two televised matches since the middle of last season.
His 180s numbers these days are down into the region of 0.22 per leg- historically we'd have pitched him nearer the 0.3 per leg level of players like Chizzy, Anderson and MVG. Evetts is capable of matching Lewis on the maximums as a result now, and 11/5 looks a shade long for him to hit the most.
1pt Evetts Most 180s at 11/5 (Betfair)
Finally Ryan Searle is a player we really like. Many won't have heard of him, but he's posted some decent legs on tour this season, and would expect to win something like 33% of his legs with the throw in 15 darts.
That should make him reasonably hard to break, and he's posting numbers than Top 25 players would be happy with. He has to have a chance of upsetting Mensur Suljovic over such a short format - especially with the Austrian not being at the absolute top of his game right now.
Odds of 4/1 sound pretty fair right?
1pt Searle to beat Suljovic at 4/1 (General)