World Darts - Day 11 - Sun Evening
The final session before Christmas. It's been a great pre-Christmas run, and things inevitably get harder after Xmas as the better players will be involved, and the bookmakers know a lot more about these folk.
The opening match see's a confident Adrian Lewis take on Darius Labanauskas, and I'm still to be convinced the old Lewis is back in the game.
Labanauskas is well capable of stroking the lipstick, and his 180s per leg typically come in around the 0.2 per leg mark - a touch light of Lewis, but not by a lot - Lewis is now averaging around 0.22 per leg.
Betfair offer 16/5 that the Lithuanian hits more 180s in this match, and while no certainty, it most certainly is value.
I'm also very happy to dispute William Hill's average line for Lewis set at 96.5. He's so capable of breaking that line on his day, but his day so infrequently rolls around these days it's surely value to be worse. 14 of his last 25 TV matches have gone under 96.5, and of those played in the last two years it is 12/18. Against a lesser player, this could get scrappy.
2pts Labanauskas to hit more 180s at 16/5 (Betfair)
2pts Lewis to average under 96.5 (Will Hill)
In the Nathan Aspinall v Kyle Anderson match, the bookmakers all agree that Anderson should be the man to prevail. I'm on the fence though in splitting these two, which makes the Englishman value in my eyes.
He's played some great darts already this week - beating Gerwyn Price with something to spare, and shouldn't be underrated here. At 6/4 I fear that's what a few layers are doing. In set play, narrow margins are narrower. I'd have him no longer than 11/10 personally.
1pt Aspinall to beat Anderson at 6/4 (General)