MvG v Joyce
This is not the match-up we were expecting, and it could be an absolute anialation. Joyce has yet to average over 90.40 in any of his four matches thus far (90.34, 90.40, 89.65 and 87.69) and how he came through against James Wade is anyone's guess - he missed 35 darts at double in that match. I'm glad he did, but it really wont be good enough to challenge MVG in this one I'm afraid.
The Dutchman is yet to average under 101.51, and smashed in a relentless 10808 against Adrian Lewis. Lewis himself averaged 101 and hit 47% of his doubles but still go thrashed 4-1.
MvG is no longer than 5/4 to win the match in a whitewash, and that would be fair enough if he starts the match with the Darts in hand. Without that knowledge though it's hard to get involved at that price.
Hills have pitched MvG's UO average at 103.5 for this one, and that perhaps looks a touch high if Joyce isn't finishing many legs, but again, it's marginal as to whether it's any value.
On the 180s front, Joyce appeals to hit fewer than 4.5 at 11/10 with Ladbrokes. He has managed 16 in 82 legs this tournament (0.19 per leg) but that's above his more usual standard of around 0.14 per leg. If we expected 0.17 per leg, and around 24 legs in the match, that gives us an expectancy of around 4.0. Under 4.5 should be an odds-on shot when we distribute those - perhaps 8/11 or so.
We'll also assume a short match can stop Joyce banging in any big check outs. Lewis managed to take 10 legs of MvG with exceptional finishing, while Hopp and Tabern get six each. This is a long format match, but each of those players nabbed a set. I'd suggest Joyce will do well to get more than seven. With around 8% of his winning legs seeing check outs over 100, Joyce looks great value to have a top check out of under 110.5 in our view.
2pts Joyce Under 4.5 180s at 11/10 (Coral)
2pts
Under 110.5 Highest Joyce CO at 5/6 (Betfred)