Michael Smith v Nathan Aspinall
Backing Nathan Aspinall has been hugely successful for us this year, and i'm considering whether I should be prepared to try one more throw of the dice in this one.
So far in the World Championships, Aspinal has won 59% of legs, checking out 10.7% of them with ton+ checkouts and hitting 0.234 180's per leg (26 in 111 legs). He has converted 37.7% of his darts at a double.
Smith compares better on nearly every metric - but only slightly better. He has won 63% of his legs, checking out 10.9% with a ton+ finish and he's hit 42.6% of his darts at double. On the 180's he stands out with 0.39 maximums per leg.
On balance, I think Smith will have enough for him, but it's unlikely to be a walk-over and Aspinall +2.5 Sets looks worth a small bet at even money here.
On the 180s I'd be pitching their lines at around 13.5 for Smith and 8.5 for Aspinal (expected based on around 35 legs in the match). I'm happy to take a chance on "Over 12.5 180s" at 11/10.
Finally Smith checks out on D20 about 36% of the time, with Aspinall slightly higher. A small bet on match winning double being Double Top at 2/1 is slight value and completes our portfolio.
1pt Aspinall +2.5 Sets at 1/1 (General)
2pts Smith Over 12.5 180s at 11/10 (Betfair)
1pt Match Winning Double 20 at 2/1 (Coral / Betfred)