MvG v Gary Anderson
These encounters are always epic - regardless of what the world rankings say, these are the two best darters on the planet right night, and they have locked horns 56 times so far.
Anderson has won 18, MvG 36 and two have ended up drawn. Looking only at battles where at least 10 legs were needed to win the match the stats change to nine wins for MvG and six for Anderson. Either way, MvG usually has the edge.
Looking at the tournament stats from their last four matches, MVG has won 54 of 84 legs (64%) while Anderson has been pushed much harder, winning just 57.8% of his 114 legs. He has faced a lot more time on stage and dropped nine sets. MvG has dropped just four sets.
Its mostly been down to their scoring power, with MvG hitting 45% of his double attempts and Anderson at 43%. MvG has been great on his cover shots and it's made a difference.
In the 180s, usually there would be little between the pair, but MvG has been well under par on that front. He would usually expect to have hit around 29 maximums in 84 legs, but he has just 21 so far. Anderson would have expected to hit 39 in his 114 legs based on long term trends - so the fact that he has 40 shows he's bang on expected values. The money has been coming for Anderson Most 180s and it's into 5/6 now which is probably short enough. There is probably enough juice in the 10/11 on Anderson hitting the first 180 of the match with Betfair to be worth a small play.
We've trawled all MvGs matches this season in search of other value, and BetFred have probably made a bit of a rick in offering 6/4 on the Dutchman hitting over 100 in his first three darts. Our data makes it slightly odds-on, but 6/4 is available on that.
1.1pt Anderson to hit 1st 180 at 10/11 (Betfair)
2pts MvG to score over 100 with his 1st three darts at 6/4 (Betfred)