MvG v Michael Smith
This seems a very fair final - probably the two most impressive players in the tournament and they will rightly battle it out for the honours on New Years Day.
Smith was simply sensational at times against Aspinall in the semi-final - slamming in 17 180's in just 36 legs (0.47 per leg), hitting 51% of his darts at a double and taking out five top+ finishes. It was as good as I've seen him play.
Overall for the tournament, he's now hit 45% of his double attempts and scored 51 180's in 123 legs - 63% of which he has won.
MvG raised the bar further again as he came close to whitewashing Gary Anderson. He won 20 out of 27 legs against the Scotsman (74% of legs) and struck 11 180s (0.41 per leg). It was magic darts.
Overall MvG has won 67% of legs, and hit 46% of his darts at double. He's notched 32 180s in 111 legs - 0.29 per leg.
It's hard to argue too much with the bookies appraisal that MvG is a 1/4 shot in this. He's comfortable the best player, but Smith is playing well enough to give himself a punchers chance. In a race to seven sets though, its hard to see an upset getting over the line - particularly against a man who has averaged 102.59, 101.51, 108.08, 101.12 and 104.76 in his five matches so far. MvG has also won 14 of the last 16 between the pair. We'll resist getting involved either way in these markets.
Both players typically average around 0.33 180s per leg, but it is Smith who is shooting well above his usual rates at the moment, and he's done it over a large enough sample this event to convince us that SportingBets 19/20 on him hitting the most 180s is a value bet. We'd take 10/11 as well if that price goes.
The match is probably in for around 43 legs on average, which makes the 14.5 180s line feel about right for MvG. Smith could be one or two higher.
It could be worth a small bet on Smith getting the highest checkout in the match. He is more frequently leaving himself higher three figure checkouts based on their nine-dart scoring, which has seen him finish 11 100+ finishes to 7 from MvG this tournament. At 7/4 he's overpriced to hit the highest checkout of the match.
There may well be some specials to follow when all the darts compilers get into their offices later today, but for now we will snaffle the early value.
3pts Smith to hit most 180s at 19/20 (SportingBet)
1pt Smith to have the highest CO at 7/4 (Boylesports)