Aussie Open - Day 1
Rublev v McDonald
Neither player have really looked like cracking the higher echelons of the game, with Andrey Rublev ranked 84th and Mackenzie McDonald 79th at the moment.
Rublev is a rare multi-court player and he doesn’t really seem to care what the ground under his feet looks or plays like. He enjoyed a decent run in Sydney last week, coming through qualifying and beating Lucas Pouille in the first round. The courts there will be quite similar to this weeks conditions.
McDonald mostly plays on hard courts, but hasn’t really rocketed up the rankings and the American hasn’t been beyond a 2nd round since Wimbledon. This one looks like a Rublev win to me and odds of 8/15 should be backed here.
1pt Rublev to beat McDonald at 1/2 (General)
Tsitsipas v Berrettini
The pair have only met once – when Greek Tsitsipas beat Berrettini 6-7 7-6 7-6 in qualifying for the US Open. That was a tight match, and Berrettini looks over priced in this one to beat the World No.15.
Tsitsipas is only ranked 308 in the hard court rankings – collecting 52 pts from 12 events, while Berrettini is unranked. Tsitsipas is a clay courter by trade – he does play a fair few hard events, but most are clay and that’s where his best form tends to be shown. The market may be slightly over-rating his chances in this as a result. It’s similar for Berrettino, but he does as least play the majority of his matches on hard courts, and he should be a genuine threat at an attractive price. He’s currently 14/5 and I’d be far closer to a tight match than that – perhaps nearer to 7/4 in this.
1pt Berrettini to beat Tsitsipas at 14/5 (UniBet)
Viktor Troicki v Roberto Carballes Baena
This could potentially be a pretty scrappy match, and I wouldn’t want to be a 1/3 backer of Troicki here. He’s down at a ranking of 201 now, compared to 73rd for Carballes Baena and there is enough uncertainty around this match to make the upset worth supporting.
Toicki spent the end of last season out – he hasn’t played since September in Beijing. He’s very much a multi-court player, but his career 175-142 record suggests hard courts are not his best surface – and now he is into the twilight of his top-level career – he’s 33 this year.
Carballes Baena is a clear clay courter, which is one of the reasons why he is the priced as he is. Nevertheless his 17-20 record on hard courts is reasonable enough. Slightly concerning would be two tame defeats in warm-up for this event, but looking back to last season, he holds a 103% combined serve/receive % which is impressive, albeit only over four matches.
There are plenty of arguments for this not being a bet, but enough to persuade me a single point at 13/5 is worth chucking out there.
1pt Carballes Baena to beat Troicki at 13/5 (Betfair / Sporting Bet)