Aussie Open - Day 4
It’s a day for backing the outsiders on Day 4 we reckon (Wednesday night UK time), with a number of unfancied players having enough reasons to suggest they can make life hard for their higher ranked opponents.
Ryan Harrison v Daniil Medvedev
We’ll start with Harrison – a man whom we backed in the 1st round. He plays Russian Medvedev and the first point of interest is perhaps the bookmakers pricing when the pair met back in August in the Winston-Salem Open – also played on hard courts. Medvedev was a miniscule favourite in that one – offered at 1.95 with Pinnacle, while Harrison was 1.97.
While this is played over the longer format of course, it immediately jumps out that Medvedev is now considered a 1/4 shot to win this time around. The pair have really similar data when playing similarly ranked opponents, and I really think if Harrison turns up in good nick he has a chance here.
Looking at their records against players in the 50-100 bracket, Harrison holds a combined Service/Receiving Pts % total of 102.7% and a 7-4 winning record over the past year. Medvedev compares closely – 104.3% and a better 9-2 winning record. Turn up the quality, and their respective records against players ranked 20-50 are 102.0% v 100.4%, with Harrison holding a 3-1 winning record and Medvedev a 7-4 record.
In short, Medvedev will expect to win this one, but that outcome surely isn’t as certain as the bookmakers suggest.
1pt Harrison to beat Medvedev at 4/1 (General)
Fabio Fognini v Leonardo Mayer
If ever there was a player who I don’t trust when betting on him, it has to be the volatile Fognini. He represents all the Italian stereotypes on the court and despite being an outsider, I give Leonardo Mayer a great shot in this one – another man who we backed in the opening round.
The pair have met five times before – all on clay, but interestingly Mayer has won both meetings in recent memory – winning 6-3 6-4 in Madrid last season, and 6-3 6-3 earlier in the season as well.
Versus players ranked 10-50 Fognini has a combined 99% Serve/Receive record on hard courts last season – compared to 96.2% for Mayer. They are also reasonably close when looking at their performances versus players in the 50-100 bracket – 102.1% v 101.8%.
Mayer progressed over four sets from his round one match with Nicolas Jarry, while Fognini made slightly hard work of beating Jaume Antoni Munar Clar – 7-6 7-6 3-1 (ret). Dig deeper into that match and a 60% break point conversion rate and two winning tie breaks made that look easier that it was – Clar took just two of his ten break point chances so might well have been much closer.
2pts Mayer to beat Fognini at 13/8 (Bet365)
Ilya Ivashka v Pablo Carreno Busta
Carreno Busta won the last meeting between the pair – back in 2016 when Ivashka was just an emerging youngster. It was a straight-forward win (6-0 7-5 6-2) but there may be a different script this time around.
The Spaniard is very much a clay court player for a start off – he’s played 66% of his career matches on clay and just 25% on hard courts. His preparation is also far from ideal – being pushed very hard by qualifier Luca Vanni in round 1 – the match going to five sets, 52 games and almost four hours. Carreno Busta was a 1/4 in that one, so will have been disappointed with the manner of the win.
Ivashka continues another trend of being a man included in our 1st round picks! He beat Malek Jaziri 4-6 7-6 6-1 4-0 (ret) and was a comfortable winner in the end. He warmed up for Melbourne with a run to the final of the Canberra Challenger, although didn’t really face anyone of note that week. More interesting and relevant are his numbers on tour against Top 100 players on tour last year.
Against players ranked 10-100 on hard courts in 2018 he held a 5-3 winning record and achieved an excellent combined serve-receive % of 104.2%. Carreno Busta by comparison is 106.3%. These two could be set for a pretty tight battle, and I’m happy to support Ivashka at a best price of 7/4 here.
1pt Ivashka to beat Carreno Busta at 8/5 (Bet Victor)
Hyeon Chung v Pierre Hughes Herbert
The pair have shared the honours in their two meetings, but haven’t met on court since 2015. It is Chung who has been more successful lately though, rising to 25th in the World after a decent 2018. I would have preferred a better first round performance from Chung than his five set victory over Bradley Klahn, but his longer term numbers make him a play in this meeting.
Against players ranked 10-50 he holds an excellent 102.9% combined Service/Receive % - returning a winning 7-4 record as a result, and that compares to 97.0% for Herbert and a 4-6 losing record. Stepping down the level and looking at those ranked 50-100, Chung has a combined % of 104.1% versus 100.2% for Herbert. He’s only a shade odds-on and that represents value according to the data
2pts Hyeon Chung to beat Pierre Hughes Herbert at 4/6 (General)
Filip Krajinovic v Evgeny Donskoy
This pair have met four times in the past – three as seniors and once in the junior ranks. Krajinovic has won all three full tour meetings, and we’ll forgive him the junior defeat given he was just 16 when he faced an 18 year old junior.
Two of their meetings came last year – in the Kremlin Cup and Dubai Tennis Championships. In Dubai Krajinovic took 5 out of his 14 break point opportunities, while Donskoy forced just a single opportunity to break serve. In Moscow he was also the dominant force, winning 46% of receiving points and holding his serve in 62% of points.
A repeat looks more than possible here and he’s 2/1 to win the match in straight sets. Having come through a tough test against Marco Cecchinato he looks worth backing.
1pt Krajinovic to win 3-0 at 2/1 (Boylesports)