Aussie Open - Day 6 - Mens
Fabio Fognini v Pablo Carreno Busta
This pair have met five times in the past, and the Spaniard has won them all. It could have been good fortune, or there could be something in the match up of styles, but whatever, it's a mighty fine record.
Fognini has probably been pretty lucky to play just six sets in the tournament so far as well - winning four of those sets on tie-beaks, and another via retirement. Add in what a volatile player he can be, and that hard courts aren't his favourite surface, and it's a surprise to see him favourite in this one.
Carreno Busta made hard work of Luca Vanni in round one, but recovered with a good win over Ilya Ivaska in the last round and he has much stronger all round numbers that Fognini on hard courts over the past year. Against players ranked 50-100 he is 7-1 (Fognini is 5-4) with a 110.6% combined service/receiving % (Fognini is 102.1%. Against players ranked 10-50 he has a 5-3 winning record (Fognini 4-3) and a 102.5% combined (Fognini is 99%).
All in all, its enough to make me rate the 5/4 on offer on Carreno Busta.
2pts Pablo Carreno Busta to beat Fabio Fognini at 6/5 (General)
Borna Coric v Filip Krajinovic
Coric has cruised into Round 3 - not being broken at all in his opening match with Steve Darcis, and winning 76% of service points (and facing just five break-points against Marton Fucsovic). Over the past 12 months he's been closing in on elite level performances on hard courts, and has won a combined 116.9% of service/receiving points against players ranked 50-100. He's putting together a fabulous service record with a decent return game, and should be very very hard to stop this week.
Krajinovic is not in the same league - he's 101.3% by comparison and his serve is looking really vulnerable ahead of this one, which simply doesn't match up well.
At the higher level, Coric is 9-3 against players ranked 10-50, while Krajinovic is just 1-4. There should only be one winner here, and we're backing the 3-0 in the set betting market at 5/4 with Marathon Bet.
2pts Coric to beat Krajinovic 3-0 at 5/4 (Marathon)