Aussie Open - Day 8
The market is struggling to split Alexaner Zverev and Milos Raonic in a match which will be dominated by serve throughout. Both men are up there on the service stats, but it is Zverev who looks the more likely to be able to trouble his opponent from the other end of the court - he has a 40.4% return pts % against players ranked 10-50 on hard courts and that makes him amongst the best returners left in the event.
Raonic will be a tough nut to crack of course - his corresponding service stat is a healthy 70.4%, but Zverev isn't too much lower at 66.9% and that means Raonic is unlikely to break him too often the other way.
There is enough between these players that Zverev should be a solid favourite in my eyes, and the 4/5 on offer generally is worth putting into our portfolio.
2.5pts Zverev to beat Raonic at 4/5 (General)
We mentioned Naomi Osaka's extraordinary record of winning 2-0 towards the end of last week, and despite that bet losing, I'm happy to give her another go when she faces Anastasija Sevastova.
Osaka won the US Open so clearly has the guts to get over the line against the best players, and her performance data marks her out as the player to prevail in this one - Sevastova just doesn't have the serve to win enough games on her own serve against such a strong return game, and that could be the key in this one.
Osaka looks one of the strongest players left in the tournament, and the 13/8 with Hills on a 2-0 is decent value here.
1pt Osaka to beat Sevastova 2-0 at 13/8 (WillHill)