Aussie Open - Ladies Semi-Finals
Karolina Pliskova v Naomi Osaka
The pair have met three times before, with Pliskova ahead 2-1 on the head-to-head, and they are both now firmly established in the World Top 10. Osaka will climb even higher than her current World No.4 after this effort of course.
Taking their hard court records over the past 12 months against Top 25 players seems a reasonable place to start on this one, with Pliskova holding a 5-7 losing record and Osaka a 10-10 record. Pliskova has netted a combined Service% / Receiving% of 98.4% of points, while Oasaka is marginally higher at 100.2%. Basically, there is nothing in it in the medium term stats.
Looking at this week alone, Pliskova stands out having beaten Serena Williams and Garbine Muguruza, and the 11/10 on her looks a fair shout in my eyes. She was simply imperious against Muguruza, and Williams was playing so well in the lead up to the quarter finals, she looked unbeatable.
1pt Pliskova to beat Osaka at 11/10 (General)
Petra Kvitova v Danielle Rose Collins
Danielle Rose Collins has come from seemingly nowhere to reach her first Grand Slam semi-final, and compared to the last time these pair met – just three weeks ago, this match is a monster. That meeting was in the first round in Brisbane, and to say Kvitova scraped through by the skin of her teeth would be a fair reflection on that match. The bookmakers price this one the same as they did that day this time around. It ended up 6-7 7-6 6-3 for what it’s worth.
Prior to this week Collins had never won a Grand Slam match, although one key fact worth considering is that she has a 9-9 record against players who have been in the Top 10 over her short career, so knows how to raise her game
All the 2018 data suggests there could be a slim chance of an upset in this one, and I’m willing to chuck a point at that outcome and see how it lands. The only nagging doubt here is that Kvitova has definitely been the better player over the week, so we should keep stakes minimal.
In the Specials markets, Marathon have gone up with 1s Double Fault, and the 5/7 they have quoted looks big of Kvitova. She serves, on average, 0.53 doubles per service game, compared to 0.26 per service game for Collins. I’d be closer to 8/15 about her knocking down the first double here, so close to 8/11 represents slight value.
At those rates, I’d be pitching my expectations at around 5-6 Doubles from Kvitova, so the U/O quote from Marathon on 3.5 offering odds-against on Over 3.5 makes lots of appeal. They are 2.12 about Over 3.5. That should be odds-on in my view.
1pt Collins to beat Kvitova at 7/2 (General)
1pt Kvitova to serve 1st Double Fault at 5/7 (Marathon)
3pts Kvitova to serve Over 3.5 Double Faults at 2.12 (Marathon)